Current forecast consensus from numerical weather models supports the market's near-certain positioning on a 30°C high for Istanbul on June 15, with mid-June climatology and persistent high-pressure ridging favoring peak readings near this threshold under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow. Official guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles shows daytime maxima stabilizing around 28–30°C, aligning with historical averages that climb toward 26–28°C by mid-month. Traders' strong consensus reflects real-time model agreement and observed conditions through the day, though modest uncertainty remains from potential afternoon sea-breeze reinforcement or brief convective cloud development that could cap the peak 1–2°C lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 15?
30°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$51,008 Vol.
$51,008 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$51,008 Vol.
$51,008 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
26°C or below
$2,404 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,767 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,755 Vol.
No
29°C
$9,815 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,193 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$7,696 Vol.
No
32°C
$8,782 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,281 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,202 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,135 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$1,979 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from numerical weather models supports the market's near-certain positioning on a 30°C high for Istanbul on June 15, with mid-June climatology and persistent high-pressure ridging favoring peak readings near this threshold under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow. Official guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles shows daytime maxima stabilizing around 28–30°C, aligning with historical averages that climb toward 26–28°C by mid-month. Traders' strong consensus reflects real-time model agreement and observed conditions through the day, though modest uncertainty remains from potential afternoon sea-breeze reinforcement or brief convective cloud development that could cap the peak 1–2°C lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$51,008End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from numerical weather models supports the market's near-certain positioning on a 30°C high for Istanbul on June 15, with mid-June climatology and persistent high-pressure ridging favoring peak readings near this threshold under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow. Official guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles shows daytime maxima stabilizing around 28–30°C, aligning with historical averages that climb toward 26–28°C by mid-month. Traders' strong consensus reflects real-time model agreement and observed conditions through the day, though modest uncertainty remains from potential afternoon sea-breeze reinforcement or brief convective cloud development that could cap the peak 1–2°C lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51,008End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecast consensus from numerical weather models supports the market's near-certain positioning on a 30°C high for Istanbul on June 15, with mid-June climatology and persistent high-pressure ridging favoring peak readings near this threshold under mostly clear skies and light southerly flow. Official guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles shows daytime maxima stabilizing around 28–30°C, aligning with historical averages that climb toward 26–28°C by mid-month. Traders' strong consensus reflects real-time model agreement and observed conditions through the day, though modest uncertainty remains from potential afternoon sea-breeze reinforcement or brief convective cloud development that could cap the peak 1–2°C lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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