Short-term ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daily maximum temperatures in Istanbul near 27–28°C on June 25, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow moderating the urban heat island effect. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values, though small differences in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any weak trough could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical June climatology places average highs near 26–27°C, providing context for why trader-implied probabilities concentrate on outcomes between 26°C and 28°C rather than extremes. Updated 48-hour forecasts and local observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 25?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 25?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$77,350 Vol.
$77,350 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$77,350 Vol.
$77,350 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
22°C or below
$466 Vol.
No
23°C
$947 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,646 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,319 Vol.
No
26°C
$9,330 Vol.
No
27°C
$36,976 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$7,628 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,260 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,789 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,403 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$2,587 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daily maximum temperatures in Istanbul near 27–28°C on June 25, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow moderating the urban heat island effect. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values, though small differences in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any weak trough could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical June climatology places average highs near 26–27°C, providing context for why trader-implied probabilities concentrate on outcomes between 26°C and 28°C rather than extremes. Updated 48-hour forecasts and local observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 1:08 AM ET
Volume
$77,350End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 1:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daily maximum temperatures in Istanbul near 27–28°C on June 25, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow moderating the urban heat island effect. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values, though small differences in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any weak trough could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical June climatology places average highs near 26–27°C, providing context for why trader-implied probabilities concentrate on outcomes between 26°C and 28°C rather than extremes. Updated 48-hour forecasts and local observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$77,350End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 1:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Short-term ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting daily maximum temperatures in Istanbul near 27–28°C on June 25, with limited cloud cover and light northerly flow moderating the urban heat island effect. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values, though small differences in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any weak trough could shift the peak by 1°C. Historical June climatology places average highs near 26–27°C, providing context for why trader-implied probabilities concentrate on outcomes between 26°C and 28°C rather than extremes. Updated 48-hour forecasts and local observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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