Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which project London’s highest temperature on April 17 clustering around 17–18°C amid a gradual warmup following early April’s record-breaking heat—26.6°C in Kew Gardens—and subsequent cooler, rainy spells. Recent observational data shows mean April temperatures 1–2°C above climatological norms (typically 13–15°C highs), driven by high-pressure influences and mild Atlantic flows, but cloud cover, isolated showers, and breezy conditions introduce variability that could cap peaks at 17°C or permit sunnier midday intervals for 18°C. New model runs expected Thursday may refine this, with resolution hinging on Heathrow-area maximums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on April 17?
Highest temperature in London on April 17?
18°C 34%
17°C 32%
19°C 23%
16°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
9%
17°C
32%
18°C
34%
19°C
23%
20°C
5%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
3%
18°C 34%
17°C 32%
19°C 23%
16°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
12°C or below
$323 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$403 Vol.
1%
14°C
$244 Vol.
3%
15°C
$275 Vol.
6%
16°C
$423 Vol.
9%
17°C
$65 Vol.
32%
18°C
$68 Vol.
34%
19°C
$51 Vol.
23%
20°C
$18 Vol.
5%
21°C
$57 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$475 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which project London’s highest temperature on April 17 clustering around 17–18°C amid a gradual warmup following early April’s record-breaking heat—26.6°C in Kew Gardens—and subsequent cooler, rainy spells. Recent observational data shows mean April temperatures 1–2°C above climatological norms (typically 13–15°C highs), driven by high-pressure influences and mild Atlantic flows, but cloud cover, isolated showers, and breezy conditions introduce variability that could cap peaks at 17°C or permit sunnier midday intervals for 18°C. New model runs expected Thursday may refine this, with resolution hinging on Heathrow-area maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$2,212End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which project London’s highest temperature on April 17 clustering around 17–18°C amid a gradual warmup following early April’s record-breaking heat—26.6°C in Kew Gardens—and subsequent cooler, rainy spells. Recent observational data shows mean April temperatures 1–2°C above climatological norms (typically 13–15°C highs), driven by high-pressure influences and mild Atlantic flows, but cloud cover, isolated showers, and breezy conditions introduce variability that could cap peaks at 17°C or permit sunnier midday intervals for 18°C. New model runs expected Thursday may refine this, with resolution hinging on Heathrow-area maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,212End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, which project London’s highest temperature on April 17 clustering around 17–18°C amid a gradual warmup following early April’s record-breaking heat—26.6°C in Kew Gardens—and subsequent cooler, rainy spells. Recent observational data shows mean April temperatures 1–2°C above climatological norms (typically 13–15°C highs), driven by high-pressure influences and mild Atlantic flows, but cloud cover, isolated showers, and breezy conditions introduce variability that could cap peaks at 17°C or permit sunnier midday intervals for 18°C. New model runs expected Thursday may refine this, with resolution hinging on Heathrow-area maximums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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