Latest Met Office guidance points to a 37°C peak in London on June 26 amid an established heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm, humid air from the continent. Ensemble model spreads and urban heat-island variability introduce meaningful uncertainty around the precise maximum, keeping the market-implied distribution centered on 34–36°C rather than locking onto the headline forecast. Recent runs show limited day-to-day shift, with only modest risk of a cooler boundary-layer mix or delayed peak timing that could cap readings at or below 35°C. Traders will watch the next 12–24 h of high-resolution guidance and any updated Met Office heat warnings for signals that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on June 26?
Highest temperature in London on June 26?
36°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$308,852 Vol.
$308,852 Vol.
Jun 26, 2026
32°C or below
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$308,852 Vol.
$308,852 Vol.
Jun 26, 2026
32°C or below
$30,199 Vol.
No
33°C
$26,590 Vol.
No
34°C
$31,784 Vol.
No
35°C
$62,471 Vol.
No
36°C
$50,506 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$43,869 Vol.
No
38°C
$30,271 Vol.
No
39°C
$12,457 Vol.
No
40°C
$4,628 Vol.
No
41°C
$3,226 Vol.
No
42°C or higher
$12,851 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office guidance points to a 37°C peak in London on June 26 amid an established heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm, humid air from the continent. Ensemble model spreads and urban heat-island variability introduce meaningful uncertainty around the precise maximum, keeping the market-implied distribution centered on 34–36°C rather than locking onto the headline forecast. Recent runs show limited day-to-day shift, with only modest risk of a cooler boundary-layer mix or delayed peak timing that could cap readings at or below 35°C. Traders will watch the next 12–24 h of high-resolution guidance and any updated Met Office heat warnings for signals that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$308,852End Date
Jun 26, 2026Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office guidance points to a 37°C peak in London on June 26 amid an established heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm, humid air from the continent. Ensemble model spreads and urban heat-island variability introduce meaningful uncertainty around the precise maximum, keeping the market-implied distribution centered on 34–36°C rather than locking onto the headline forecast. Recent runs show limited day-to-day shift, with only modest risk of a cooler boundary-layer mix or delayed peak timing that could cap readings at or below 35°C. Traders will watch the next 12–24 h of high-resolution guidance and any updated Met Office heat warnings for signals that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$308,852End Date
Jun 26, 2026Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Latest Met Office guidance points to a 37°C peak in London on June 26 amid an established heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm, humid air from the continent. Ensemble model spreads and urban heat-island variability introduce meaningful uncertainty around the precise maximum, keeping the market-implied distribution centered on 34–36°C rather than locking onto the headline forecast. Recent runs show limited day-to-day shift, with only modest risk of a cooler boundary-layer mix or delayed peak timing that could cap readings at or below 35°C. Traders will watch the next 12–24 h of high-resolution guidance and any updated Met Office heat warnings for signals that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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