Cooling after the mid-July heat wave's peak is the main driver behind trader sentiment clustering around 78–81°F for Los Angeles' July 17 high. Weakening high pressure has allowed stronger onshore flow and a deeper marine layer to advect cooler, moister air from the Pacific, while the afternoon sea breeze further caps temperatures in the basin. Official NWS guidance and recent model runs (GFS/ECMWF) show downtown or airport readings settling in the upper 70s to low 80s rather than the mid-90s seen mid-week, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact marine intrusion timing. Historical July averages near 83–85°F provide context, but the post-heatwave pattern favors the current tight distribution across the three leading bins. Updated afternoon forecasts and any late-model shifts remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on July 17?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 17?
86-87°F 100.0%
73°F or below <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$139,852 Vol.
$139,852 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
73°F or below
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
Yes
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92°F or higher
No
86-87°F 100.0%
73°F or below <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$139,852 Vol.
$139,852 Vol.
Jul 17, 2026
73°F or below
$2,794 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$3,504 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$10,956 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$28,360 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$15,432 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$13,549 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$36,815 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$17,526 Vol.
Yes
88-89°F
$4,915 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$4,741 Vol.
No
92°F or higher
$1,261 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cooling after the mid-July heat wave's peak is the main driver behind trader sentiment clustering around 78–81°F for Los Angeles' July 17 high. Weakening high pressure has allowed stronger onshore flow and a deeper marine layer to advect cooler, moister air from the Pacific, while the afternoon sea breeze further caps temperatures in the basin. Official NWS guidance and recent model runs (GFS/ECMWF) show downtown or airport readings settling in the upper 70s to low 80s rather than the mid-90s seen mid-week, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact marine intrusion timing. Historical July averages near 83–85°F provide context, but the post-heatwave pattern favors the current tight distribution across the three leading bins. Updated afternoon forecasts and any late-model shifts remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$139,852End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cooling after the mid-July heat wave's peak is the main driver behind trader sentiment clustering around 78–81°F for Los Angeles' July 17 high. Weakening high pressure has allowed stronger onshore flow and a deeper marine layer to advect cooler, moister air from the Pacific, while the afternoon sea breeze further caps temperatures in the basin. Official NWS guidance and recent model runs (GFS/ECMWF) show downtown or airport readings settling in the upper 70s to low 80s rather than the mid-90s seen mid-week, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact marine intrusion timing. Historical July averages near 83–85°F provide context, but the post-heatwave pattern favors the current tight distribution across the three leading bins. Updated afternoon forecasts and any late-model shifts remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$139,852End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Cooling after the mid-July heat wave's peak is the main driver behind trader sentiment clustering around 78–81°F for Los Angeles' July 17 high. Weakening high pressure has allowed stronger onshore flow and a deeper marine layer to advect cooler, moister air from the Pacific, while the afternoon sea breeze further caps temperatures in the basin. Official NWS guidance and recent model runs (GFS/ECMWF) show downtown or airport readings settling in the upper 70s to low 80s rather than the mid-90s seen mid-week, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact marine intrusion timing. Historical July averages near 83–85°F provide context, but the post-heatwave pattern favors the current tight distribution across the three leading bins. Updated afternoon forecasts and any late-model shifts remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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