The third official heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of Saharan air under persistent high pressure and clear skies, anchors trader focus on 38–40°C for Madrid’s July 23 maximum. AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows stable deterministic runs centered near 38°C, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s extremes and daily highs tracking 33–39°C through late July. This consensus, set against climatological July averages near 37°C, explains the heavy weighting toward 39°C and 38°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 40°C if advection strengthens. Final model updates and official observations on the day remain the key near-term variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 23?
39°C 43%
38°C 31%
40°C 19%
37°C 6.3%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
6%
38°C
31%
39°C
43%
40°C
19%
41°C
4%
42°C
<1%
43°C
1%
44°C or higher
<1%
39°C 43%
38°C 31%
40°C 19%
37°C 6.3%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
34°C or below
$801 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$162 Vol.
1%
36°C
$121 Vol.
2%
37°C
$156 Vol.
6%
38°C
$298 Vol.
31%
39°C
$280 Vol.
43%
40°C
$829 Vol.
19%
41°C
$129 Vol.
4%
42°C
$213 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$207 Vol.
1%
44°C or higher
$201 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The third official heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of Saharan air under persistent high pressure and clear skies, anchors trader focus on 38–40°C for Madrid’s July 23 maximum. AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows stable deterministic runs centered near 38°C, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s extremes and daily highs tracking 33–39°C through late July. This consensus, set against climatological July averages near 37°C, explains the heavy weighting toward 39°C and 38°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 40°C if advection strengthens. Final model updates and official observations on the day remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$3,388End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The third official heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of Saharan air under persistent high pressure and clear skies, anchors trader focus on 38–40°C for Madrid’s July 23 maximum. AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows stable deterministic runs centered near 38°C, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s extremes and daily highs tracking 33–39°C through late July. This consensus, set against climatological July averages near 37°C, explains the heavy weighting toward 39°C and 38°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 40°C if advection strengthens. Final model updates and official observations on the day remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,388End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The third official heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of Saharan air under persistent high pressure and clear skies, anchors trader focus on 38–40°C for Madrid’s July 23 maximum. AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows stable deterministic runs centered near 38°C, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s extremes and daily highs tracking 33–39°C through late July. This consensus, set against climatological July averages near 37°C, explains the heavy weighting toward 39°C and 38°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 40°C if advection strengthens. Final model updates and official observations on the day remain the key near-term variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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