Official meteorological records from June 1 confirm a daily maximum temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for that outcome. This aligns with the transition into the warmer phase of the rainy season, where climatological baselines near 24–25°C often see peaks elevated by daytime heating and reduced cloud cover before widespread precipitation sets in. Ensemble forecast models from agencies like the National Meteorological Service of Mexico showed consistent projections exceeding this threshold with narrow uncertainty ranges, reflecting typical early-June atmospheric patterns. A realistic challenge would have required an unforecasted influx of cooler air or prolonged heavy rain suppressing highs, though such deviations were low-probability given observed conditions and model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on June 1?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on June 1?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$32,472 Vol.
$32,472 Vol.
Jun 1, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$32,472 Vol.
$32,472 Vol.
Jun 1, 2026
16°C or below
$632 Vol.
No
17°C
$293 Vol.
No
18°C
$293 Vol.
No
19°C
$674 Vol.
No
20°C
$353 Vol.
No
21°C
$7,640 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,307 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,724 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,892 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,933 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$11,732 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological records from June 1 confirm a daily maximum temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for that outcome. This aligns with the transition into the warmer phase of the rainy season, where climatological baselines near 24–25°C often see peaks elevated by daytime heating and reduced cloud cover before widespread precipitation sets in. Ensemble forecast models from agencies like the National Meteorological Service of Mexico showed consistent projections exceeding this threshold with narrow uncertainty ranges, reflecting typical early-June atmospheric patterns. A realistic challenge would have required an unforecasted influx of cooler air or prolonged heavy rain suppressing highs, though such deviations were low-probability given observed conditions and model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 30, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$32,472End Date
Jun 1, 2026Market Opened
May 30, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official meteorological records from June 1 confirm a daily maximum temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for that outcome. This aligns with the transition into the warmer phase of the rainy season, where climatological baselines near 24–25°C often see peaks elevated by daytime heating and reduced cloud cover before widespread precipitation sets in. Ensemble forecast models from agencies like the National Meteorological Service of Mexico showed consistent projections exceeding this threshold with narrow uncertainty ranges, reflecting typical early-June atmospheric patterns. A realistic challenge would have required an unforecasted influx of cooler air or prolonged heavy rain suppressing highs, though such deviations were low-probability given observed conditions and model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,472End Date
Jun 1, 2026Market Opened
May 30, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official meteorological records from June 1 confirm a daily maximum temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City, driving the market-implied odds to 100% for that outcome. This aligns with the transition into the warmer phase of the rainy season, where climatological baselines near 24–25°C often see peaks elevated by daytime heating and reduced cloud cover before widespread precipitation sets in. Ensemble forecast models from agencies like the National Meteorological Service of Mexico showed consistent projections exceeding this threshold with narrow uncertainty ranges, reflecting typical early-June atmospheric patterns. A realistic challenge would have required an unforecasted influx of cooler air or prolonged heavy rain suppressing highs, though such deviations were low-probability given observed conditions and model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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