The latest forecast from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issued at 10:00h today, projects a maximum temperature of 28-30°C in Mexico City under a high-pressure ridge initiating early heat wave conditions, propelling trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 26°C or higher. Current morning observations confirm diurnal heating with temperatures already climbing past 20°C amid partially cloudy skies, aligning with model consensus and May climatology where daily highs average 26°C but frequently exceed it during dry spells. Realistic challenges include afternoon isolated showers (0.1-5 mm probability) or persistent cloud cover capping peak heat, though SMN guidance deems these low-risk; monitor hourly updates and the official Benito Juárez International Airport reading for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 4?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$17,763 Vol.
$17,763 Vol.
May 4, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$17,763 Vol.
$17,763 Vol.
May 4, 2026
16°C or below
$819 Vol.
No
17°C
$167 Vol.
No
18°C
$267 Vol.
No
19°C
$273 Vol.
No
20°C
$553 Vol.
No
21°C
$960 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,608 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,236 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,950 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,813 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$3,118 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest forecast from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issued at 10:00h today, projects a maximum temperature of 28-30°C in Mexico City under a high-pressure ridge initiating early heat wave conditions, propelling trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 26°C or higher. Current morning observations confirm diurnal heating with temperatures already climbing past 20°C amid partially cloudy skies, aligning with model consensus and May climatology where daily highs average 26°C but frequently exceed it during dry spells. Realistic challenges include afternoon isolated showers (0.1-5 mm probability) or persistent cloud cover capping peak heat, though SMN guidance deems these low-risk; monitor hourly updates and the official Benito Juárez International Airport reading for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ET
Volume
$17,763End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest forecast from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issued at 10:00h today, projects a maximum temperature of 28-30°C in Mexico City under a high-pressure ridge initiating early heat wave conditions, propelling trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 26°C or higher. Current morning observations confirm diurnal heating with temperatures already climbing past 20°C amid partially cloudy skies, aligning with model consensus and May climatology where daily highs average 26°C but frequently exceed it during dry spells. Realistic challenges include afternoon isolated showers (0.1-5 mm probability) or persistent cloud cover capping peak heat, though SMN guidance deems these low-risk; monitor hourly updates and the official Benito Juárez International Airport reading for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,763End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The latest forecast from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issued at 10:00h today, projects a maximum temperature of 28-30°C in Mexico City under a high-pressure ridge initiating early heat wave conditions, propelling trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 26°C or higher. Current morning observations confirm diurnal heating with temperatures already climbing past 20°C amid partially cloudy skies, aligning with model consensus and May climatology where daily highs average 26°C but frequently exceed it during dry spells. Realistic challenges include afternoon isolated showers (0.1-5 mm probability) or persistent cloud cover capping peak heat, though SMN guidance deems these low-risk; monitor hourly updates and the official Benito Juárez International Airport reading for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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