Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Milan's highest temperature on April 18, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering around 24-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe. This setup promotes subsidence, southerly winds advecting mild Mediterranean air, and mostly sunny skies favoring solar heating to above-normal levels—well beyond April's climatological average of 17-18°C at Milano Linate or Malpensa stations. The slim edge for 25°C stems from recent runs showing stronger boundary-layer mixing and urban heat amplification in Milan, versus cooler GFS outliers with potential afternoon clouds capping peaks at 24°C. ARPA Lombardia's morning bulletin and real-time observations will refine this before afternoon maximums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on April 18?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 18?
25°C 39%
24°C 36%
23°C 12%
26°C 10%
NEW
$18,966 Vol.
NEW
$18,966 Vol.
Apr 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
12%
24°C
36%
25°C
39%
26°C
10%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
1%
25°C 39%
24°C 36%
23°C 12%
26°C 10%
NEW
$18,966 Vol.
NEW
$18,966 Vol.
Apr 18, 2026
18°C or below
$2,015 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,512 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,354 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$4,136 Vol.
1%
22°C
$2,605 Vol.
2%
23°C
$1,639 Vol.
12%
24°C
$995 Vol.
36%
25°C
$953 Vol.
39%
26°C
$1,071 Vol.
10%
27°C
$735 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$994 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Milan's highest temperature on April 18, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering around 24-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe. This setup promotes subsidence, southerly winds advecting mild Mediterranean air, and mostly sunny skies favoring solar heating to above-normal levels—well beyond April's climatological average of 17-18°C at Milano Linate or Malpensa stations. The slim edge for 25°C stems from recent runs showing stronger boundary-layer mixing and urban heat amplification in Milan, versus cooler GFS outliers with potential afternoon clouds capping peaks at 24°C. ARPA Lombardia's morning bulletin and real-time observations will refine this before afternoon maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Volume
$18,966End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Milan's highest temperature on April 18, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering around 24-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe. This setup promotes subsidence, southerly winds advecting mild Mediterranean air, and mostly sunny skies favoring solar heating to above-normal levels—well beyond April's climatological average of 17-18°C at Milano Linate or Malpensa stations. The slim edge for 25°C stems from recent runs showing stronger boundary-layer mixing and urban heat amplification in Milan, versus cooler GFS outliers with potential afternoon clouds capping peaks at 24°C. ARPA Lombardia's morning bulletin and real-time observations will refine this before afternoon maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$18,966End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Milan's highest temperature on April 18, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering around 24-25°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe. This setup promotes subsidence, southerly winds advecting mild Mediterranean air, and mostly sunny skies favoring solar heating to above-normal levels—well beyond April's climatological average of 17-18°C at Milano Linate or Malpensa stations. The slim edge for 25°C stems from recent runs showing stronger boundary-layer mixing and urban heat amplification in Milan, versus cooler GFS outliers with potential afternoon clouds capping peaks at 24°C. ARPA Lombardia's morning bulletin and real-time observations will refine this before afternoon maximums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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