Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position Milan’s July 25 maximum near 30–32 °C under persistent subtropical ridging, yet the leading 28 °C-or-below outcome (39.5 % implied) reflects model spread from an approaching Atlantic trough that could enhance northerly flow and reduce boundary-layer heating. Po Valley subsidence inversions and urban heat-island effects normally amplify daytime peaks, but recent soundings show slightly cooler mid-level air and higher low-level moisture that favor modest capping. Historical July maxima average 29–31 °C, so the tight clustering around 29–30 °C in market pricing captures the narrow uncertainty window before the next model cycle and observational updates from ARPA Lombardia.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on July 25?
Highest temperature in Milan on July 25?
28°C or below 39.9%
29°C 26%
30°C 22%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
28°C or below
40%
29°C
26%
30°C
22%
31°C
13%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
28°C or below 39.9%
29°C 26%
30°C 22%
31°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
28°C or below
$105 Vol.
40%
29°C
$228 Vol.
26%
30°C
$132 Vol.
22%
31°C
$99 Vol.
13%
32°C
$94 Vol.
5%
33°C
$147 Vol.
2%
34°C
$208 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$72 Vol.
1%
36°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$44 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position Milan’s July 25 maximum near 30–32 °C under persistent subtropical ridging, yet the leading 28 °C-or-below outcome (39.5 % implied) reflects model spread from an approaching Atlantic trough that could enhance northerly flow and reduce boundary-layer heating. Po Valley subsidence inversions and urban heat-island effects normally amplify daytime peaks, but recent soundings show slightly cooler mid-level air and higher low-level moisture that favor modest capping. Historical July maxima average 29–31 °C, so the tight clustering around 29–30 °C in market pricing captures the narrow uncertainty window before the next model cycle and observational updates from ARPA Lombardia.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,214End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position Milan’s July 25 maximum near 30–32 °C under persistent subtropical ridging, yet the leading 28 °C-or-below outcome (39.5 % implied) reflects model spread from an approaching Atlantic trough that could enhance northerly flow and reduce boundary-layer heating. Po Valley subsidence inversions and urban heat-island effects normally amplify daytime peaks, but recent soundings show slightly cooler mid-level air and higher low-level moisture that favor modest capping. Historical July maxima average 29–31 °C, so the tight clustering around 29–30 °C in market pricing captures the narrow uncertainty window before the next model cycle and observational updates from ARPA Lombardia.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,214End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs position Milan’s July 25 maximum near 30–32 °C under persistent subtropical ridging, yet the leading 28 °C-or-below outcome (39.5 % implied) reflects model spread from an approaching Atlantic trough that could enhance northerly flow and reduce boundary-layer heating. Po Valley subsidence inversions and urban heat-island effects normally amplify daytime peaks, but recent soundings show slightly cooler mid-level air and higher low-level moisture that favor modest capping. Historical July maxima average 29–31 °C, so the tight clustering around 29–30 °C in market pricing captures the narrow uncertainty window before the next model cycle and observational updates from ARPA Lombardia.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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