Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Paris on May 9?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$116,646 交易量
$116,646 交易量
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$116,646 交易量
$116,646 交易量
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions