Ensemble forecasts from the National Weather Service and European models show San Francisco’s June 26 high centered in the mid-60s, reflecting persistent marine-layer influence and moderate onshore flow that limits afternoon warming. Sea-surface temperatures along the central California coast remain near seasonal normals, sustaining coastal upwelling and stratus that cap daytime maxima. Slight model spread arises from uncertain timing of any marine-layer clearance and subtle variations in 850-hPa temperatures, producing the tight clustering between 64–67 °F bins. Historical June climatology places the long-term average high near 67 °F, so current probabilities align closely with both recent observations and expected variability under neutral ENSO conditions.