Trader consensus has locked in 60-61°F at 100% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by confirmed observational data from the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) station, the standard reference for such markets. National Weather Service hourly records show peak readings of 61°F around 3 p.m., while Weather Underground aggregates the daily maximum at 60°F, fitting squarely in this bin amid persistent marine stratus clouds and west-southwest winds up to 16 mph that capped diurnal heating well below the 67°F climatological average. This "May Gray" pattern, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and strong onshore flow, suppressed highs effectively. Realistic challenges would require a formal data audit revising the official max upward—highly unlikely given cross-verified observations—but traders await final NWS climatological report for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on May 2?
60-61°F 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$67,360 Vol.
$67,360 Vol.
May 2, 2026
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
Yes
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68°F or higher
No
60-61°F 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$67,360 Vol.
$67,360 Vol.
May 2, 2026
49°F or below
$2,158 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$790 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$4,415 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$3,520 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$3,864 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$21,713 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$5,930 Vol.
Yes
62-63°F
$12,839 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$5,443 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$3,208 Vol.
No
68°F or higher
$3,479 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 60-61°F at 100% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by confirmed observational data from the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) station, the standard reference for such markets. National Weather Service hourly records show peak readings of 61°F around 3 p.m., while Weather Underground aggregates the daily maximum at 60°F, fitting squarely in this bin amid persistent marine stratus clouds and west-southwest winds up to 16 mph that capped diurnal heating well below the 67°F climatological average. This "May Gray" pattern, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and strong onshore flow, suppressed highs effectively. Realistic challenges would require a formal data audit revising the official max upward—highly unlikely given cross-verified observations—but traders await final NWS climatological report for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$67,360End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 60-61°F at 100% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by confirmed observational data from the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) station, the standard reference for such markets. National Weather Service hourly records show peak readings of 61°F around 3 p.m., while Weather Underground aggregates the daily maximum at 60°F, fitting squarely in this bin amid persistent marine stratus clouds and west-southwest winds up to 16 mph that capped diurnal heating well below the 67°F climatological average. This "May Gray" pattern, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and strong onshore flow, suppressed highs effectively. Realistic challenges would require a formal data audit revising the official max upward—highly unlikely given cross-verified observations—but traders await final NWS climatological report for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$67,360End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked in 60-61°F at 100% implied probability for San Francisco's highest temperature on May 2, 2026, driven by confirmed observational data from the San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) station, the standard reference for such markets. National Weather Service hourly records show peak readings of 61°F around 3 p.m., while Weather Underground aggregates the daily maximum at 60°F, fitting squarely in this bin amid persistent marine stratus clouds and west-southwest winds up to 16 mph that capped diurnal heating well below the 67°F climatological average. This "May Gray" pattern, fueled by cool Pacific sea surface temperatures and strong onshore flow, suppressed highs effectively. Realistic challenges would require a formal data audit revising the official max upward—highly unlikely given cross-verified observations—but traders await final NWS climatological report for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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