**Recent passage of a cold front into São Paulo around June 23 is the dominant driver of trader positioning.** The front has advected cooler polar air into the region, with models indicating suppressed daytime highs for June 25 amid increased cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and limited solar heating—conditions typical after winter’s official start on June 21. Official guidance points to minimums near or below 10–13 °C overnight into the 25th, with maximum temperatures likely constrained to the 14–17 °C range rather than the seasonal average near 21–22 °C. **Model consensus and timing uncertainties explain the tight clustering around 14–15 °C (over 60 % combined implied probability).** Differences in the speed of cold-air advection, residual moisture, and any late-day clearing produce small but market-relevant variations in peak readings. Traders are weighting the most recent runs showing a modest rebound from the immediate post-frontal chill while still reflecting the overall cooler regime. No major warm-air return or strong subsidence is expected before the 25th, keeping probabilities for 18 °C+ or sub-13 °C outcomes very low. Updated INMET and regional model guidance on the 24th–25th will be the next key inputs for positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 25?
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$85,180 Vol.
$85,180 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$85,180 Vol.
$85,180 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
10°C or below
$2,002 Vol.
No
11°C
$879 Vol.
No
12°C
$47,224 Vol.
No
13°C
$8,715 Vol.
No
14°C
$5,558 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$3,936 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,985 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,187 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,721 Vol.
No
19°C
$4,745 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$5,228 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent passage of a cold front into São Paulo around June 23 is the dominant driver of trader positioning.** The front has advected cooler polar air into the region, with models indicating suppressed daytime highs for June 25 amid increased cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and limited solar heating—conditions typical after winter’s official start on June 21. Official guidance points to minimums near or below 10–13 °C overnight into the 25th, with maximum temperatures likely constrained to the 14–17 °C range rather than the seasonal average near 21–22 °C.
**Model consensus and timing uncertainties explain the tight clustering around 14–15 °C (over 60 % combined implied probability).** Differences in the speed of cold-air advection, residual moisture, and any late-day clearing produce small but market-relevant variations in peak readings. Traders are weighting the most recent runs showing a modest rebound from the immediate post-frontal chill while still reflecting the overall cooler regime. No major warm-air return or strong subsidence is expected before the 25th, keeping probabilities for 18 °C+ or sub-13 °C outcomes very low. Updated INMET and regional model guidance on the 24th–25th will be the next key inputs for positions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$85,180End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent passage of a cold front into São Paulo around June 23 is the dominant driver of trader positioning.** The front has advected cooler polar air into the region, with models indicating suppressed daytime highs for June 25 amid increased cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and limited solar heating—conditions typical after winter’s official start on June 21. Official guidance points to minimums near or below 10–13 °C overnight into the 25th, with maximum temperatures likely constrained to the 14–17 °C range rather than the seasonal average near 21–22 °C.
**Model consensus and timing uncertainties explain the tight clustering around 14–15 °C (over 60 % combined implied probability).** Differences in the speed of cold-air advection, residual moisture, and any late-day clearing produce small but market-relevant variations in peak readings. Traders are weighting the most recent runs showing a modest rebound from the immediate post-frontal chill while still reflecting the overall cooler regime. No major warm-air return or strong subsidence is expected before the 25th, keeping probabilities for 18 °C+ or sub-13 °C outcomes very low. Updated INMET and regional model guidance on the 24th–25th will be the next key inputs for positions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$85,180End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Recent passage of a cold front into São Paulo around June 23 is the dominant driver of trader positioning.** The front has advected cooler polar air into the region, with models indicating suppressed daytime highs for June 25 amid increased cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and limited solar heating—conditions typical after winter’s official start on June 21. Official guidance points to minimums near or below 10–13 °C overnight into the 25th, with maximum temperatures likely constrained to the 14–17 °C range rather than the seasonal average near 21–22 °C. **Model consensus and timing uncertainties explain the tight clustering around 14–15 °C (over 60 % combined implied probability).** Differences in the speed of cold-air advection, residual moisture, and any late-day clearing produce small but market-relevant variations in peak readings. Traders are weighting the most recent runs showing a modest rebound from the immediate post-frontal chill while still reflecting the overall cooler regime. No major warm-air return or strong subsidence is expected before the 25th, keeping probabilities for 18 °C+ or sub-13 °C outcomes very low. Updated INMET and regional model guidance on the 24th–25th will be the next key inputs for positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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