Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 19°C at virtually 100% implied probability for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 3, backed by official Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) observations showing peaks around 19.5°C amid pervasive cloud cover and light showers from a passing cold front. This system suppressed solar heating and daytime warming, with hourly data from Congonhas Airport (SBSP) and urban stations aligning below 20°C despite typical May highs averaging 23–25°C. The market's positioning reflects verified measurements up to 15h local time, with final daily summaries expected soon. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc revision from INMET reanalysis or dispute over the reference station could shift it, though historical precedents show such adjustments under 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$56,289 Vol.
$56,289 Vol.
May 3, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$56,289 Vol.
$56,289 Vol.
May 3, 2026
14°C or below
$2,232 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,233 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,412 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,195 Vol.
No
18°C
$5,513 Vol.
No
19°C
$12,144 Vol.
Yes
20°C
$7,599 Vol.
No
21°C
$5,287 Vol.
No
22°C
$5,411 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,059 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$7,204 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 19°C at virtually 100% implied probability for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 3, backed by official Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) observations showing peaks around 19.5°C amid pervasive cloud cover and light showers from a passing cold front. This system suppressed solar heating and daytime warming, with hourly data from Congonhas Airport (SBSP) and urban stations aligning below 20°C despite typical May highs averaging 23–25°C. The market's positioning reflects verified measurements up to 15h local time, with final daily summaries expected soon. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc revision from INMET reanalysis or dispute over the reference station could shift it, though historical precedents show such adjustments under 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$56,289End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 19°C at virtually 100% implied probability for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 3, backed by official Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) observations showing peaks around 19.5°C amid pervasive cloud cover and light showers from a passing cold front. This system suppressed solar heating and daytime warming, with hourly data from Congonhas Airport (SBSP) and urban stations aligning below 20°C despite typical May highs averaging 23–25°C. The market's positioning reflects verified measurements up to 15h local time, with final daily summaries expected soon. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc revision from INMET reanalysis or dispute over the reference station could shift it, though historical precedents show such adjustments under 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$56,289End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 19°C at virtually 100% implied probability for São Paulo's highest temperature on May 3, backed by official Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) observations showing peaks around 19.5°C amid pervasive cloud cover and light showers from a passing cold front. This system suppressed solar heating and daytime warming, with hourly data from Congonhas Airport (SBSP) and urban stations aligning below 20°C despite typical May highs averaging 23–25°C. The market's positioning reflects verified measurements up to 15h local time, with final daily summaries expected soon. Realistic challenges are minimal—only a rare post hoc revision from INMET reanalysis or dispute over the reference station could shift it, though historical precedents show such adjustments under 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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