**Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) station confirm the highest temperature reached 28°C on May 9, 2026, under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds ahead of an incoming cold front.** This aligns precisely with pre-event INMET forecasts projecting a 28°C maximum, driven by transient autumn ridge warming that temporarily boosted temperatures above May's climatological average of 22–23°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 28°C reflects this verified observational data from authoritative stations, representing skin-in-the-game agreement on the measured peak. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post hoc data revisions from SBGR or INMET, such as sensor recalibrations, though model-observation consistency makes shifts improbable as final reports finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 9?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 9?
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$60,724 Vol.
$60,724 Vol.
May 9, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$60,724 Vol.
$60,724 Vol.
May 9, 2026
24°C or below
$7,069 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,306 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,097 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,128 Vol.
No
28°C
$9,804 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$9,340 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,978 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,598 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,970 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,298 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$3,136 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) station confirm the highest temperature reached 28°C on May 9, 2026, under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds ahead of an incoming cold front.** This aligns precisely with pre-event INMET forecasts projecting a 28°C maximum, driven by transient autumn ridge warming that temporarily boosted temperatures above May's climatological average of 22–23°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 28°C reflects this verified observational data from authoritative stations, representing skin-in-the-game agreement on the measured peak. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post hoc data revisions from SBGR or INMET, such as sensor recalibrations, though model-observation consistency makes shifts improbable as final reports finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$60,724End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) station confirm the highest temperature reached 28°C on May 9, 2026, under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds ahead of an incoming cold front.** This aligns precisely with pre-event INMET forecasts projecting a 28°C maximum, driven by transient autumn ridge warming that temporarily boosted temperatures above May's climatological average of 22–23°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 28°C reflects this verified observational data from authoritative stations, representing skin-in-the-game agreement on the measured peak. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post hoc data revisions from SBGR or INMET, such as sensor recalibrations, though model-observation consistency makes shifts improbable as final reports finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,724End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Official observations from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) station confirm the highest temperature reached 28°C on May 9, 2026, under mostly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds ahead of an incoming cold front.** This aligns precisely with pre-event INMET forecasts projecting a 28°C maximum, driven by transient autumn ridge warming that temporarily boosted temperatures above May's climatological average of 22–23°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 28°C reflects this verified observational data from authoritative stations, representing skin-in-the-game agreement on the measured peak. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post hoc data revisions from SBGR or INMET, such as sensor recalibrations, though model-observation consistency makes shifts improbable as final reports finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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