Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on April 18, driven by official observations from the Xujiahui meteorological station—the city's reference site—recording a midday peak of 21°C under hazy, partly cloudy conditions that limited solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS aligned with this outcome, projecting moderate southerly winds and high humidity capping intensities around early-spring climatological norms of 18–20°C. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-afternoon clearance of clouds triggering a 1–2°C heat burst before sunset, though declining solar angles and incoming cooler air mass make higher readings unlikely as final daily records finalize tonight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 18?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 18?
21°C 100.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$289,827 Vol.
$289,827 Vol.
Apr 18, 2026
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
21°C 100.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$289,827 Vol.
$289,827 Vol.
Apr 18, 2026
21°C
$63,186 Vol.
100%
22°C
$28,625 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$16,591 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15,183 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$11,315 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on April 18, driven by official observations from the Xujiahui meteorological station—the city's reference site—recording a midday peak of 21°C under hazy, partly cloudy conditions that limited solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS aligned with this outcome, projecting moderate southerly winds and high humidity capping intensities around early-spring climatological norms of 18–20°C. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-afternoon clearance of clouds triggering a 1–2°C heat burst before sunset, though declining solar angles and incoming cooler air mass make higher readings unlikely as final daily records finalize tonight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
Volume
$289,827End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on April 18, driven by official observations from the Xujiahui meteorological station—the city's reference site—recording a midday peak of 21°C under hazy, partly cloudy conditions that limited solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS aligned with this outcome, projecting moderate southerly winds and high humidity capping intensities around early-spring climatological norms of 18–20°C. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-afternoon clearance of clouds triggering a 1–2°C heat burst before sunset, though declining solar angles and incoming cooler air mass make higher readings unlikely as final daily records finalize tonight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$289,827End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on April 18, driven by official observations from the Xujiahui meteorological station—the city's reference site—recording a midday peak of 21°C under hazy, partly cloudy conditions that limited solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS aligned with this outcome, projecting moderate southerly winds and high humidity capping intensities around early-spring climatological norms of 18–20°C. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-afternoon clearance of clouds triggering a 1–2°C heat burst before sunset, though declining solar angles and incoming cooler air mass make higher readings unlikely as final daily records finalize tonight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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