Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Taipei's highest temperature reaching exactly 32°C on May 7, driven by the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) latest forecast projecting a daytime peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies with occasional afternoon showers. This aligns with current observations at Taipei Songshan Airport station tracking mid-20s°C early afternoon amid a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering stable southerly winds and ample solar insolation, consistent with early May climatology where highs average 28–30°C but can spike under such setups. Model consensus from short-range guidance reinforces this, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective activity capping temperatures below 32°C or a rare late-day heat burst exceeding it, though official end-of-day CWA measurements will confirm resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on May 7?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 7?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$183,846 Vol.
$183,846 Vol.
May 7, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$183,846 Vol.
$183,846 Vol.
May 7, 2026
26°C or below
$3,005 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,081 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,386 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,032 Vol.
No
30°C
$107,472 Vol.
No
31°C
$10,642 Vol.
No
32°C
$12,476 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$7,963 Vol.
No
34°C
$8,938 Vol.
No
35°C
$6,804 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$8,048 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Taipei's highest temperature reaching exactly 32°C on May 7, driven by the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) latest forecast projecting a daytime peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies with occasional afternoon showers. This aligns with current observations at Taipei Songshan Airport station tracking mid-20s°C early afternoon amid a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering stable southerly winds and ample solar insolation, consistent with early May climatology where highs average 28–30°C but can spike under such setups. Model consensus from short-range guidance reinforces this, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective activity capping temperatures below 32°C or a rare late-day heat burst exceeding it, though official end-of-day CWA measurements will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volume
$183,846End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Taipei's highest temperature reaching exactly 32°C on May 7, driven by the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) latest forecast projecting a daytime peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies with occasional afternoon showers. This aligns with current observations at Taipei Songshan Airport station tracking mid-20s°C early afternoon amid a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering stable southerly winds and ample solar insolation, consistent with early May climatology where highs average 28–30°C but can spike under such setups. Model consensus from short-range guidance reinforces this, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective activity capping temperatures below 32°C or a rare late-day heat burst exceeding it, though official end-of-day CWA measurements will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$183,846End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Taipei's highest temperature reaching exactly 32°C on May 7, driven by the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) latest forecast projecting a daytime peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies with occasional afternoon showers. This aligns with current observations at Taipei Songshan Airport station tracking mid-20s°C early afternoon amid a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering stable southerly winds and ample solar insolation, consistent with early May climatology where highs average 28–30°C but can spike under such setups. Model consensus from short-range guidance reinforces this, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective activity capping temperatures below 32°C or a rare late-day heat burst exceeding it, though official end-of-day CWA measurements will confirm resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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