Recent ensemble forecasts from global models and the Israel Meteorological Service indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting a daily maximum near 30–32°C in Tel Aviv on July 16 with limited diurnal variability due to coastal sea breezes. Climatological normals for mid-July place typical highs at 30–31°C, and current runs show no heat advection or subsidence strengthening that would push readings to 33°C or above. The 32°C outcome leads at 61% implied probability because multiple model solutions cluster there, while the 31°C bracket at 30% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating. Traders are monitoring updated NWP runs and official IMS guidance through the next 48 hours, as small shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the final maximum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 16?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 16?
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$39,889 Vol.
$39,889 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$39,889 Vol.
$39,889 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
28°C or below
$597 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,818 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,360 Vol.
No
31°C
$12,846 Vol.
No
32°C
$9,794 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$5,472 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,660 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,418 Vol.
No
36°C
$1,343 Vol.
No
37°C
$758 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$823 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models and the Israel Meteorological Service indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting a daily maximum near 30–32°C in Tel Aviv on July 16 with limited diurnal variability due to coastal sea breezes. Climatological normals for mid-July place typical highs at 30–31°C, and current runs show no heat advection or subsidence strengthening that would push readings to 33°C or above. The 32°C outcome leads at 61% implied probability because multiple model solutions cluster there, while the 31°C bracket at 30% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating. Traders are monitoring updated NWP runs and official IMS guidance through the next 48 hours, as small shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the final maximum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$39,889End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models and the Israel Meteorological Service indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting a daily maximum near 30–32°C in Tel Aviv on July 16 with limited diurnal variability due to coastal sea breezes. Climatological normals for mid-July place typical highs at 30–31°C, and current runs show no heat advection or subsidence strengthening that would push readings to 33°C or above. The 32°C outcome leads at 61% implied probability because multiple model solutions cluster there, while the 31°C bracket at 30% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating. Traders are monitoring updated NWP runs and official IMS guidance through the next 48 hours, as small shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the final maximum by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,889End Date
Jul 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from global models and the Israel Meteorological Service indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting a daily maximum near 30–32°C in Tel Aviv on July 16 with limited diurnal variability due to coastal sea breezes. Climatological normals for mid-July place typical highs at 30–31°C, and current runs show no heat advection or subsidence strengthening that would push readings to 33°C or above. The 32°C outcome leads at 61% implied probability because multiple model solutions cluster there, while the 31°C bracket at 30% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating. Traders are monitoring updated NWP runs and official IMS guidance through the next 48 hours, as small shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the final maximum by 1–2°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions