Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 11°C as the highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 28, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by IMGW and ECMWF ensemble forecast models converging on this peak amid persistent northerly winds advecting cool Arctic air masses. Morning observations registered 8°C under partly cloudy skies following overnight ground frost warnings (down to -8°C), while mid-afternoon readings hovered around 9-10°C with limited solar insolation due to variable cloud cover—well below April climatological averages of 13°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment between official observational data from the airport station (resolution source via Wunderground) and model guidance capping daytime heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling a brief 1°C surge via enhanced insolation, though persistent cool advection and overcast conditions render higher outcomes improbable; final IMGW hourly updates through evening will confirm the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 28?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 28?
11°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$39,101 Vol.
$39,101 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
Yes
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
11°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$39,101 Vol.
$39,101 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
7°C or below
$853 Vol.
No
8°C
$1,833 Vol.
No
9°C
$5,072 Vol.
No
10°C
$3,834 Vol.
No
11°C
$5,754 Vol.
Yes
12°C
$8,481 Vol.
No
13°C
$4,930 Vol.
No
14°C
$3,260 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,667 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,656 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$1,761 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 11°C as the highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 28, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by IMGW and ECMWF ensemble forecast models converging on this peak amid persistent northerly winds advecting cool Arctic air masses. Morning observations registered 8°C under partly cloudy skies following overnight ground frost warnings (down to -8°C), while mid-afternoon readings hovered around 9-10°C with limited solar insolation due to variable cloud cover—well below April climatological averages of 13°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment between official observational data from the airport station (resolution source via Wunderground) and model guidance capping daytime heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling a brief 1°C surge via enhanced insolation, though persistent cool advection and overcast conditions render higher outcomes improbable; final IMGW hourly updates through evening will confirm the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 26, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Volume
$39,101End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 26, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 11°C as the highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 28, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by IMGW and ECMWF ensemble forecast models converging on this peak amid persistent northerly winds advecting cool Arctic air masses. Morning observations registered 8°C under partly cloudy skies following overnight ground frost warnings (down to -8°C), while mid-afternoon readings hovered around 9-10°C with limited solar insolation due to variable cloud cover—well below April climatological averages of 13°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment between official observational data from the airport station (resolution source via Wunderground) and model guidance capping daytime heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling a brief 1°C surge via enhanced insolation, though persistent cool advection and overcast conditions render higher outcomes improbable; final IMGW hourly updates through evening will confirm the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$39,101End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 26, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 11°C as the highest temperature at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 28, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by IMGW and ECMWF ensemble forecast models converging on this peak amid persistent northerly winds advecting cool Arctic air masses. Morning observations registered 8°C under partly cloudy skies following overnight ground frost warnings (down to -8°C), while mid-afternoon readings hovered around 9-10°C with limited solar insolation due to variable cloud cover—well below April climatological averages of 13°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment between official observational data from the airport station (resolution source via Wunderground) and model guidance capping daytime heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling a brief 1°C surge via enhanced insolation, though persistent cool advection and overcast conditions render higher outcomes improbable; final IMGW hourly updates through evening will confirm the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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