Recent forecast guidance from major numerical weather prediction models points to a modest daytime maximum in Warsaw on August 17 driven by a passing trough and increased cloud cover that will limit solar insolation and cap surface heating. Ensemble spreads show 2 m temperatures peaking near 22–24 °C, with the precise value hinging on the timing and extent of any breaks in stratiform clouds, boundary-layer mixing depth, and weak westerly advection of slightly cooler maritime air. Official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will resolve the market using the highest 1-hour average recorded at the Warsaw station; small differences in these variables readily separate the tightly bunched 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C outcomes that currently dominate trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 17?
23°C 34%
22°C 31%
24°C 20%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
20°C or below
5%
21°C
6%
22°C
31%
23°C
34%
24°C
20%
25°C
9%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 34%
22°C 31%
24°C 20%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
20°C or below
$1,110 Vol.
5%
21°C
$343 Vol.
6%
22°C
$487 Vol.
31%
23°C
$182 Vol.
34%
24°C
$96 Vol.
20%
25°C
$257 Vol.
9%
26°C
$41 Vol.
1%
27°C
$19 Vol.
1%
28°C
$628 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$206 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from major numerical weather prediction models points to a modest daytime maximum in Warsaw on August 17 driven by a passing trough and increased cloud cover that will limit solar insolation and cap surface heating. Ensemble spreads show 2 m temperatures peaking near 22–24 °C, with the precise value hinging on the timing and extent of any breaks in stratiform clouds, boundary-layer mixing depth, and weak westerly advection of slightly cooler maritime air. Official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will resolve the market using the highest 1-hour average recorded at the Warsaw station; small differences in these variables readily separate the tightly bunched 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C outcomes that currently dominate trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$3,396End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from major numerical weather prediction models points to a modest daytime maximum in Warsaw on August 17 driven by a passing trough and increased cloud cover that will limit solar insolation and cap surface heating. Ensemble spreads show 2 m temperatures peaking near 22–24 °C, with the precise value hinging on the timing and extent of any breaks in stratiform clouds, boundary-layer mixing depth, and weak westerly advection of slightly cooler maritime air. Official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will resolve the market using the highest 1-hour average recorded at the Warsaw station; small differences in these variables readily separate the tightly bunched 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C outcomes that currently dominate trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,396End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from major numerical weather prediction models points to a modest daytime maximum in Warsaw on August 17 driven by a passing trough and increased cloud cover that will limit solar insolation and cap surface heating. Ensemble spreads show 2 m temperatures peaking near 22–24 °C, with the precise value hinging on the timing and extent of any breaks in stratiform clouds, boundary-layer mixing depth, and weak westerly advection of slightly cooler maritime air. Official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will resolve the market using the highest 1-hour average recorded at the Warsaw station; small differences in these variables readily separate the tightly bunched 22 °C, 23 °C, and 24 °C outcomes that currently dominate trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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