Current numerical weather prediction models and MetService guidance indicate a maximum temperature near 15–16°C for Wellington on June 21, driven by a mild northerly flow advecting warmer air over the region amid typical wintertime westerly influences and variable cloud cover. Historical June maxima average 12–13°C, so any positive anomaly depends on limited mixing from Cook Strait winds and reduced radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. The close market spread between 15°C and 17°C reflects minor ensemble disagreements on frontal timing and wind speed, with 16–17°C outcomes favored if northerlies strengthen as some runs suggest. Updated model cycles and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on June 21?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?
17°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$240,059 Vol.
$240,059 Vol.
Jun 21, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$240,059 Vol.
$240,059 Vol.
Jun 21, 2026
11°C or below
$4,261 Vol.
No
12°C
$18,727 Vol.
No
13°C
$49,379 Vol.
No
14°C
$48,688 Vol.
No
15°C
$27,653 Vol.
No
16°C
$28,538 Vol.
No
17°C
$35,806 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$11,234 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,698 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,521 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$9,553 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models and MetService guidance indicate a maximum temperature near 15–16°C for Wellington on June 21, driven by a mild northerly flow advecting warmer air over the region amid typical wintertime westerly influences and variable cloud cover. Historical June maxima average 12–13°C, so any positive anomaly depends on limited mixing from Cook Strait winds and reduced radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. The close market spread between 15°C and 17°C reflects minor ensemble disagreements on frontal timing and wind speed, with 16–17°C outcomes favored if northerlies strengthen as some runs suggest. Updated model cycles and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$240,059End Date
Jun 21, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models and MetService guidance indicate a maximum temperature near 15–16°C for Wellington on June 21, driven by a mild northerly flow advecting warmer air over the region amid typical wintertime westerly influences and variable cloud cover. Historical June maxima average 12–13°C, so any positive anomaly depends on limited mixing from Cook Strait winds and reduced radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. The close market spread between 15°C and 17°C reflects minor ensemble disagreements on frontal timing and wind speed, with 16–17°C outcomes favored if northerlies strengthen as some runs suggest. Updated model cycles and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$240,059End Date
Jun 21, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current numerical weather prediction models and MetService guidance indicate a maximum temperature near 15–16°C for Wellington on June 21, driven by a mild northerly flow advecting warmer air over the region amid typical wintertime westerly influences and variable cloud cover. Historical June maxima average 12–13°C, so any positive anomaly depends on limited mixing from Cook Strait winds and reduced radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. The close market spread between 15°C and 17°C reflects minor ensemble disagreements on frontal timing and wind speed, with 16–17°C outcomes favored if northerlies strengthen as some runs suggest. Updated model cycles and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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