**Near-average winter conditions under developing El Niño are anchoring trader consensus near the 13–14°C climatological maximum for Wellington on June 22.** Southwesterly flow anomalies, driven by high pressure west of New Zealand and low pressure to the north, are expected to advect cooler maritime air while enhancing mixing across Cook Strait, limiting daytime warming. NIWA’s April–June outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with historical June highs of 13°C. Minor differences between 13°C and 14°C hinge on exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and whether a brief northerly shift occurs; stronger winds would favor the lower end by increasing turbulent heat flux from the ocean. Short-range MetService and global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key updates that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on June 22?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 22?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$67,775 Vol.
$67,775 Vol.
Jun 22, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$67,775 Vol.
$67,775 Vol.
Jun 22, 2026
8°C or below
$410 Vol.
No
9°C
$254 Vol.
No
10°C
$457 Vol.
No
11°C
$6,676 Vol.
No
12°C
$13,528 Vol.
No
13°C
$16,382 Vol.
No
14°C
$11,700 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$11,302 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,788 Vol.
No
17°C
$830 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$447 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Near-average winter conditions under developing El Niño are anchoring trader consensus near the 13–14°C climatological maximum for Wellington on June 22.** Southwesterly flow anomalies, driven by high pressure west of New Zealand and low pressure to the north, are expected to advect cooler maritime air while enhancing mixing across Cook Strait, limiting daytime warming. NIWA’s April–June outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with historical June highs of 13°C. Minor differences between 13°C and 14°C hinge on exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and whether a brief northerly shift occurs; stronger winds would favor the lower end by increasing turbulent heat flux from the ocean. Short-range MetService and global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key updates that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 20, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$67,775End Date
Jun 22, 2026Market Opened
Jun 20, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Near-average winter conditions under developing El Niño are anchoring trader consensus near the 13–14°C climatological maximum for Wellington on June 22.** Southwesterly flow anomalies, driven by high pressure west of New Zealand and low pressure to the north, are expected to advect cooler maritime air while enhancing mixing across Cook Strait, limiting daytime warming. NIWA’s April–June outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with historical June highs of 13°C. Minor differences between 13°C and 14°C hinge on exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and whether a brief northerly shift occurs; stronger winds would favor the lower end by increasing turbulent heat flux from the ocean. Short-range MetService and global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key updates that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67,775End Date
Jun 22, 2026Market Opened
Jun 20, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Near-average winter conditions under developing El Niño are anchoring trader consensus near the 13–14°C climatological maximum for Wellington on June 22.** Southwesterly flow anomalies, driven by high pressure west of New Zealand and low pressure to the north, are expected to advect cooler maritime air while enhancing mixing across Cook Strait, limiting daytime warming. NIWA’s April–June outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, consistent with historical June highs of 13°C. Minor differences between 13°C and 14°C hinge on exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and whether a brief northerly shift occurs; stronger winds would favor the lower end by increasing turbulent heat flux from the ocean. Short-range MetService and global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key updates that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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