Recent MetService guidance and numerical weather prediction models indicate a maximum temperature near 15°C in Wellington on June 24, driven by northeasterly airflow advecting milder air amid typical winter westerlies, increasing cloud cover, and a period of afternoon rain. Ensemble spreads on frontal timing and wind strength underpin the market’s tight clustering around 15–17°C outcomes, which together hold over 85% implied probability. Wellington’s exposure to Cook Strait variability and departure from the 12–13°C June climatological average further shape trader assessments of these thresholds, with updated model runs expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on June 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$178,854 Vol.
$178,854 Vol.
Jun 24, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$178,854 Vol.
$178,854 Vol.
Jun 24, 2026
11°C or below
$127 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,159 Vol.
No
13°C
$3,112 Vol.
No
14°C
$62,016 Vol.
No
15°C
$31,907 Vol.
No
16°C
$39,444 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$17,586 Vol.
No
18°C
$13,728 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,934 Vol.
No
20°C
$483 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$359 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService guidance and numerical weather prediction models indicate a maximum temperature near 15°C in Wellington on June 24, driven by northeasterly airflow advecting milder air amid typical winter westerlies, increasing cloud cover, and a period of afternoon rain. Ensemble spreads on frontal timing and wind strength underpin the market’s tight clustering around 15–17°C outcomes, which together hold over 85% implied probability. Wellington’s exposure to Cook Strait variability and departure from the 12–13°C June climatological average further shape trader assessments of these thresholds, with updated model runs expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$178,854End Date
Jun 24, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService guidance and numerical weather prediction models indicate a maximum temperature near 15°C in Wellington on June 24, driven by northeasterly airflow advecting milder air amid typical winter westerlies, increasing cloud cover, and a period of afternoon rain. Ensemble spreads on frontal timing and wind strength underpin the market’s tight clustering around 15–17°C outcomes, which together hold over 85% implied probability. Wellington’s exposure to Cook Strait variability and departure from the 12–13°C June climatological average further shape trader assessments of these thresholds, with updated model runs expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$178,854End Date
Jun 24, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent MetService guidance and numerical weather prediction models indicate a maximum temperature near 15°C in Wellington on June 24, driven by northeasterly airflow advecting milder air amid typical winter westerlies, increasing cloud cover, and a period of afternoon rain. Ensemble spreads on frontal timing and wind strength underpin the market’s tight clustering around 15–17°C outcomes, which together hold over 85% implied probability. Wellington’s exposure to Cook Strait variability and departure from the 12–13°C June climatological average further shape trader assessments of these thresholds, with updated model runs expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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