**Short-term forecast models indicate Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 25 will likely fall near the June climatological average of 13 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for 12–14 °C.** Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent northwesterly or southerly flows create high day-to-day variability; minor shifts in the timing or strength of an approaching front, or in low-level wind direction and mixing, can easily swing the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current guidance clusters around 12–14 °C with no strong signal for extremes, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal outlook and the absence of significant blocking highs or intense cold-air outbreaks. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on June 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$212,371 Vol.
$212,371 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$212,371 Vol.
$212,371 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
8°C or below
$5,733 Vol.
No
9°C
$4,605 Vol.
No
10°C
$15,908 Vol.
No
11°C
$74,607 Vol.
No
12°C
$34,448 Vol.
No
13°C
$26,753 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$18,072 Vol.
No
15°C
$24,126 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,684 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,019 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$417 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models indicate Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 25 will likely fall near the June climatological average of 13 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for 12–14 °C.**
Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent northwesterly or southerly flows create high day-to-day variability; minor shifts in the timing or strength of an approaching front, or in low-level wind direction and mixing, can easily swing the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current guidance clusters around 12–14 °C with no strong signal for extremes, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal outlook and the absence of significant blocking highs or intense cold-air outbreaks. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$212,371End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models indicate Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 25 will likely fall near the June climatological average of 13 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for 12–14 °C.**
Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent northwesterly or southerly flows create high day-to-day variability; minor shifts in the timing or strength of an approaching front, or in low-level wind direction and mixing, can easily swing the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current guidance clusters around 12–14 °C with no strong signal for extremes, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal outlook and the absence of significant blocking highs or intense cold-air outbreaks. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$212,371End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Short-term forecast models indicate Wellington’s maximum temperature on June 25 will likely fall near the June climatological average of 13 °C, producing closely matched market-implied probabilities for 12–14 °C.** Wellington’s exposed coastal location and frequent northwesterly or southerly flows create high day-to-day variability; minor shifts in the timing or strength of an approaching front, or in low-level wind direction and mixing, can easily swing the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current guidance clusters around 12–14 °C with no strong signal for extremes, consistent with NIWA’s near-average seasonal outlook and the absence of significant blocking highs or intense cold-air outbreaks. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any further tightening of trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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