Wellington’s winter maximum temperatures are shaped by its exposed Cook Strait location, where frequent southerly flows and strong winds advect cooler maritime air, typically capping daily highs near the long-term June average of 13–14 °C. Current MetService guidance and numerical models indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of showers and easing southerlies for 28 June, supporting a most-likely maximum of 11–12 °C. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA place air temperatures near average for the region, while short-range ensemble spreads remain narrow around these values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48 % probability on 12 °C and 24 % on 11 °C, aligns with this forecast consensus and the limited potential for warmer northerly advection before the date. Updated model runs or any late shift in wind direction could still adjust the exact bucket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on June 28?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 28?
11°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$83,947 Vol.
$83,947 Vol.
Jun 28, 2026
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
Yes
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
11°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$83,947 Vol.
$83,947 Vol.
Jun 28, 2026
6°C or below
$4,069 Vol.
No
7°C
$232 Vol.
No
8°C
$531 Vol.
No
9°C
$11,922 Vol.
No
10°C
$22,430 Vol.
No
11°C
$18,502 Vol.
Yes
12°C
$13,713 Vol.
No
13°C
$8,289 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,858 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,651 Vol.
No
16°C or higher
$749 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s winter maximum temperatures are shaped by its exposed Cook Strait location, where frequent southerly flows and strong winds advect cooler maritime air, typically capping daily highs near the long-term June average of 13–14 °C. Current MetService guidance and numerical models indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of showers and easing southerlies for 28 June, supporting a most-likely maximum of 11–12 °C. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA place air temperatures near average for the region, while short-range ensemble spreads remain narrow around these values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48 % probability on 12 °C and 24 % on 11 °C, aligns with this forecast consensus and the limited potential for warmer northerly advection before the date. Updated model runs or any late shift in wind direction could still adjust the exact bucket.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$83,947End Date
Jun 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s winter maximum temperatures are shaped by its exposed Cook Strait location, where frequent southerly flows and strong winds advect cooler maritime air, typically capping daily highs near the long-term June average of 13–14 °C. Current MetService guidance and numerical models indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of showers and easing southerlies for 28 June, supporting a most-likely maximum of 11–12 °C. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA place air temperatures near average for the region, while short-range ensemble spreads remain narrow around these values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48 % probability on 12 °C and 24 % on 11 °C, aligns with this forecast consensus and the limited potential for warmer northerly advection before the date. Updated model runs or any late shift in wind direction could still adjust the exact bucket.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$83,947End Date
Jun 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Wellington’s winter maximum temperatures are shaped by its exposed Cook Strait location, where frequent southerly flows and strong winds advect cooler maritime air, typically capping daily highs near the long-term June average of 13–14 °C. Current MetService guidance and numerical models indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a chance of showers and easing southerlies for 28 June, supporting a most-likely maximum of 11–12 °C. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA place air temperatures near average for the region, while short-range ensemble spreads remain narrow around these values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48 % probability on 12 °C and 24 % on 11 °C, aligns with this forecast consensus and the limited potential for warmer northerly advection before the date. Updated model runs or any late shift in wind direction could still adjust the exact bucket.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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