Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA and IRI forecasts assigning 82–98% probability of development by May–July 2026, represent the dominant near-term influence on June global surface temperatures. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have already reached +0.9 °C, signaling a rapid shift from neutral conditions that typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global means within months. Recent observations place April 2026 at 1.12 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline and 2025 at 1.19 °C annually, consistent with the underlying anthropogenic warming trend. Model consensus shows substantial uncertainty in exact June values around 1.10–1.19 °C due to variable coupling strength and the spring predictability barrier, keeping adjacent bins closely matched in trader pricing ahead of updated June data releases.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 47%
1.15–1.19ºC 38%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.20–1.24ºC 28%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
38%
1.20–1.24ºC
29%
1.25–1.29ºC
26%
>1.29ºC
27%
>1.29ºC 47%
1.15–1.19ºC 38%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.20–1.24ºC 28%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Vol.
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Vol.
29%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Vol.
26%
>1.29ºC
$352 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA and IRI forecasts assigning 82–98% probability of development by May–July 2026, represent the dominant near-term influence on June global surface temperatures. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have already reached +0.9 °C, signaling a rapid shift from neutral conditions that typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global means within months. Recent observations place April 2026 at 1.12 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline and 2025 at 1.19 °C annually, consistent with the underlying anthropogenic warming trend. Model consensus shows substantial uncertainty in exact June values around 1.10–1.19 °C due to variable coupling strength and the spring predictability barrier, keeping adjacent bins closely matched in trader pricing ahead of updated June data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
ভলিউম
$528শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA and IRI forecasts assigning 82–98% probability of development by May–July 2026, represent the dominant near-term influence on June global surface temperatures. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have already reached +0.9 °C, signaling a rapid shift from neutral conditions that typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global means within months. Recent observations place April 2026 at 1.12 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline and 2025 at 1.19 °C annually, consistent with the underlying anthropogenic warming trend. Model consensus shows substantial uncertainty in exact June values around 1.10–1.19 °C due to variable coupling strength and the spring predictability barrier, keeping adjacent bins closely matched in trader pricing ahead of updated June data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$528শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA and IRI forecasts assigning 82–98% probability of development by May–July 2026, represent the dominant near-term influence on June global surface temperatures. Weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have already reached +0.9 °C, signaling a rapid shift from neutral conditions that typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global means within months. Recent observations place April 2026 at 1.12 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline and 2025 at 1.19 °C annually, consistent with the underlying anthropogenic warming trend. Model consensus shows substantial uncertainty in exact June values around 1.10–1.19 °C due to variable coupling strength and the spring predictability barrier, keeping adjacent bins closely matched in trader pricing ahead of updated June data releases.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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