Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on May 4?
Lowest temperature in London on May 4?
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$25,819 Vol.
$25,819 Vol.
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$25,819 Vol.
$25,819 Vol.
May 4, 2026
5°C or below
$7,309 Vol.
No
6°C
$3,203 Vol.
No
7°C
$893 Vol.
No
8°C
$2,043 Vol.
No
9°C
$804 Vol.
No
10°C
$800 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,284 Vol.
No
12°C
$4,692 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$1,127 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,576 Vol.
No
15°C or higher
$2,089 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$25,819End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,819End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official Met Office observations from key London stations, including Heathrow, confirm the lowest temperature on May 4, 2026, was exactly 12°C, driving unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability. Persistent low cloud and overcast conditions during the early May bank holiday weekend suppressed radiative cooling overnight—typical in such setups where insulation from cloud layers keeps surface air warmer than clearer skies would allow—resulting in minima above pre-event model forecasts of 6–8°C from sources like the UKV model. This aligns with climatological norms for early May in London, where average overnight lows hover around 8–10°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare data revisions from quality control or overlooked rural station readings, but standardized verification processes make shifts improbable as final datasets solidify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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