Traders assign closely matched implied probabilities around 35-37% to Miami's lowest temperature on July 19 falling in the 80-85°F range because short-range forecast models show modest uncertainty in overnight cooling. High humidity, weak pressure gradients, and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures near 85°F typically limit radiative cooling in South Florida's tropical climate, while sea breezes and variable cloud cover can shift the minimum by a few degrees. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF currently cluster near the upper 70s to low 80s, with historical July averages around 76°F serving as baseline. Minor differences in predicted wind or precipitation timing remain the key variables that could nudge the outcome before the next model update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on July 19?
Lowest temperature in Miami on July 19?
82-83°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$11,517 Vol.
$11,517 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
71°F or below
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
Yes
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90°F or higher
No
82-83°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$11,517 Vol.
$11,517 Vol.
Jul 19, 2026
71°F or below
$784 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$697 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$918 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$1,566 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$1,218 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$1,087 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$1,427 Vol.
Yes
84-85°F
$2,119 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$993 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$427 Vol.
No
90°F or higher
$282 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign closely matched implied probabilities around 35-37% to Miami's lowest temperature on July 19 falling in the 80-85°F range because short-range forecast models show modest uncertainty in overnight cooling. High humidity, weak pressure gradients, and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures near 85°F typically limit radiative cooling in South Florida's tropical climate, while sea breezes and variable cloud cover can shift the minimum by a few degrees. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF currently cluster near the upper 70s to low 80s, with historical July averages around 76°F serving as baseline. Minor differences in predicted wind or precipitation timing remain the key variables that could nudge the outcome before the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$11,517End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign closely matched implied probabilities around 35-37% to Miami's lowest temperature on July 19 falling in the 80-85°F range because short-range forecast models show modest uncertainty in overnight cooling. High humidity, weak pressure gradients, and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures near 85°F typically limit radiative cooling in South Florida's tropical climate, while sea breezes and variable cloud cover can shift the minimum by a few degrees. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF currently cluster near the upper 70s to low 80s, with historical July averages around 76°F serving as baseline. Minor differences in predicted wind or precipitation timing remain the key variables that could nudge the outcome before the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,517End Date
Jul 19, 2026Market Opened
Jul 17, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign closely matched implied probabilities around 35-37% to Miami's lowest temperature on July 19 falling in the 80-85°F range because short-range forecast models show modest uncertainty in overnight cooling. High humidity, weak pressure gradients, and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures near 85°F typically limit radiative cooling in South Florida's tropical climate, while sea breezes and variable cloud cover can shift the minimum by a few degrees. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF currently cluster near the upper 70s to low 80s, with historical July averages around 76°F serving as baseline. Minor differences in predicted wind or precipitation timing remain the key variables that could nudge the outcome before the next model update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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