Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a 50-51°F low temperature in New York City on April 29, 2026, driven by official National Weather Service observations at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA)—the market's designated resolution station—archived via Weather Underground, confirming the daily minimum fell squarely in this range. This outcome exceeded pre-event forecast model consensus from NOAA, which anticipated upper-40s lows amid cloudy conditions and light winds, but persistent overcast skies and urban heat island effects around the airport prevented deeper cooling overnight. Realistic challenges are minimal post-validation, though a rare data correction or archival discrepancy could theoretically prompt review; final NWS climatological summaries, typically released within 24 hours, solidify this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on April 29?
Lowest temperature in NYC on April 29?
50-51°F 100.0%
41°F or below <1%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
$19,807 Vol.
$19,807 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
41°F or below
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
Yes
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60°F or higher
No
50-51°F 100.0%
41°F or below <1%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
$19,807 Vol.
$19,807 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
41°F or below
$3,206 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$1,944 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$963 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$1,073 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$1,956 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$4,661 Vol.
Yes
52-53°F
$1,611 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$482 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$1,148 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$1,341 Vol.
No
60°F or higher
$1,421 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a 50-51°F low temperature in New York City on April 29, 2026, driven by official National Weather Service observations at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA)—the market's designated resolution station—archived via Weather Underground, confirming the daily minimum fell squarely in this range. This outcome exceeded pre-event forecast model consensus from NOAA, which anticipated upper-40s lows amid cloudy conditions and light winds, but persistent overcast skies and urban heat island effects around the airport prevented deeper cooling overnight. Realistic challenges are minimal post-validation, though a rare data correction or archival discrepancy could theoretically prompt review; final NWS climatological summaries, typically released within 24 hours, solidify this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$19,807End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a 50-51°F low temperature in New York City on April 29, 2026, driven by official National Weather Service observations at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA)—the market's designated resolution station—archived via Weather Underground, confirming the daily minimum fell squarely in this range. This outcome exceeded pre-event forecast model consensus from NOAA, which anticipated upper-40s lows amid cloudy conditions and light winds, but persistent overcast skies and urban heat island effects around the airport prevented deeper cooling overnight. Realistic challenges are minimal post-validation, though a rare data correction or archival discrepancy could theoretically prompt review; final NWS climatological summaries, typically released within 24 hours, solidify this positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,807End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a 50-51°F low temperature in New York City on April 29, 2026, driven by official National Weather Service observations at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA)—the market's designated resolution station—archived via Weather Underground, confirming the daily minimum fell squarely in this range. This outcome exceeded pre-event forecast model consensus from NOAA, which anticipated upper-40s lows amid cloudy conditions and light winds, but persistent overcast skies and urban heat island effects around the airport prevented deeper cooling overnight. Realistic challenges are minimal post-validation, though a rare data correction or archival discrepancy could theoretically prompt review; final NWS climatological summaries, typically released within 24 hours, solidify this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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