Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and NWS models indicate an overnight low in central NYC on July 25 in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driven by a stable air mass with light winds and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This range aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds across 64–69°F outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty from small differences in urban heat retention, dew point trends, and exact timing of any clearing. Historical July minima average near 68°F, providing context for why traders assign minimal probability to extremes below 62°F or above 72°F. The next NWS forecast update and morning observations will likely narrow resolution criteria around the 65–68°F thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 25?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 25?
68-69°F 35%
66-67°F 34%
64-65°F 14%
70-71°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
34%
68-69°F
35%
70-71°F
13%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
1%
76°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 35%
66-67°F 34%
64-65°F 14%
70-71°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
57°F or below
$125 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$77 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$107 Vol.
4%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
6%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
14%
66-67°F
$24 Vol.
34%
68-69°F
$20 Vol.
35%
70-71°F
$586 Vol.
13%
72-73°F
$326 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$779 Vol.
1%
76°F or higher
$185 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and NWS models indicate an overnight low in central NYC on July 25 in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driven by a stable air mass with light winds and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This range aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds across 64–69°F outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty from small differences in urban heat retention, dew point trends, and exact timing of any clearing. Historical July minima average near 68°F, providing context for why traders assign minimal probability to extremes below 62°F or above 72°F. The next NWS forecast update and morning observations will likely narrow resolution criteria around the 65–68°F thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,228End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and NWS models indicate an overnight low in central NYC on July 25 in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driven by a stable air mass with light winds and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This range aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds across 64–69°F outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty from small differences in urban heat retention, dew point trends, and exact timing of any clearing. Historical July minima average near 68°F, providing context for why traders assign minimal probability to extremes below 62°F or above 72°F. The next NWS forecast update and morning observations will likely narrow resolution criteria around the 65–68°F thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,228End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from NOAA and NWS models indicate an overnight low in central NYC on July 25 in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driven by a stable air mass with light winds and partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This range aligns with the tightly clustered market-implied odds across 64–69°F outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty from small differences in urban heat retention, dew point trends, and exact timing of any clearing. Historical July minima average near 68°F, providing context for why traders assign minimal probability to extremes below 62°F or above 72°F. The next NWS forecast update and morning observations will likely narrow resolution criteria around the 65–68°F thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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