Official National Weather Service observations from New York City Central Park station confirm the lowest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached exactly 50°F during the early morning hours, solidifying trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for the 50-51°F bin. This aligns with pre-event guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, which forecasted overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s amid light winds, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that typically elevates Central Park minima 3-5°F above rural areas—near the climatological May 2 average of 51°F. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-preliminary data revision due to sensor calibration issues, but final NWS daily climatological reports rarely alter verified hourly measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 2?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 2?
50-51°F 100.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
$30,869 Vol.
$30,869 Vol.
May 2, 2026
39°F or below
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
Yes
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58°F or higher
No
50-51°F 100.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
$30,869 Vol.
$30,869 Vol.
May 2, 2026
39°F or below
$6,903 Vol.
No
40-41°F
$1,170 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$1,759 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$1,062 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$1,370 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$4,626 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$5,161 Vol.
Yes
52-53°F
$3,784 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$846 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$1,096 Vol.
No
58°F or higher
$3,093 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations from New York City Central Park station confirm the lowest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached exactly 50°F during the early morning hours, solidifying trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for the 50-51°F bin. This aligns with pre-event guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, which forecasted overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s amid light winds, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that typically elevates Central Park minima 3-5°F above rural areas—near the climatological May 2 average of 51°F. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-preliminary data revision due to sensor calibration issues, but final NWS daily climatological reports rarely alter verified hourly measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$30,869End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations from New York City Central Park station confirm the lowest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached exactly 50°F during the early morning hours, solidifying trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for the 50-51°F bin. This aligns with pre-event guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, which forecasted overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s amid light winds, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that typically elevates Central Park minima 3-5°F above rural areas—near the climatological May 2 average of 51°F. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-preliminary data revision due to sensor calibration issues, but final NWS daily climatological reports rarely alter verified hourly measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30,869End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations from New York City Central Park station confirm the lowest temperature on May 2, 2026, reached exactly 50°F during the early morning hours, solidifying trader consensus at 100% market-implied probability for the 50-51°F bin. This aligns with pre-event guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, which forecasted overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s amid light winds, partly cloudy skies, and the urban heat island effect that typically elevates Central Park minima 3-5°F above rural areas—near the climatological May 2 average of 51°F. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-preliminary data revision due to sensor calibration issues, but final NWS daily climatological reports rarely alter verified hourly measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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