Recent forecasts from Météo-France and global models indicate Paris will see overnight lows near 14–16°C on July 1, following a late-June heatwave with daytime peaks near 40°C that has begun easing. The primary driver of the 61.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or below is the expected clear skies and light northerly flow promoting radiative cooling after sunset, consistent with climatological July minima around 15°C. Updated model runs show limited disagreement on this range, with any cloud cover or southerly shift as the main variables that could keep the low closer to 15–16°C. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for early-July nighttime drops alongside the current transition from extreme heat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on July 1?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 1?
16°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$26,236 Vol.
$26,236 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$26,236 Vol.
$26,236 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
14°C or below
$2,970 Vol.
No
15°C
$3,589 Vol.
No
16°C
$7,512 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$2,679 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,762 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,721 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,039 Vol.
No
21°C
$937 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,041 Vol.
No
23°C
$851 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$1,135 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and global models indicate Paris will see overnight lows near 14–16°C on July 1, following a late-June heatwave with daytime peaks near 40°C that has begun easing. The primary driver of the 61.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or below is the expected clear skies and light northerly flow promoting radiative cooling after sunset, consistent with climatological July minima around 15°C. Updated model runs show limited disagreement on this range, with any cloud cover or southerly shift as the main variables that could keep the low closer to 15–16°C. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for early-July nighttime drops alongside the current transition from extreme heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$26,236End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and global models indicate Paris will see overnight lows near 14–16°C on July 1, following a late-June heatwave with daytime peaks near 40°C that has begun easing. The primary driver of the 61.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or below is the expected clear skies and light northerly flow promoting radiative cooling after sunset, consistent with climatological July minima around 15°C. Updated model runs show limited disagreement on this range, with any cloud cover or southerly shift as the main variables that could keep the low closer to 15–16°C. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for early-July nighttime drops alongside the current transition from extreme heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,236End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from Météo-France and global models indicate Paris will see overnight lows near 14–16°C on July 1, following a late-June heatwave with daytime peaks near 40°C that has begun easing. The primary driver of the 61.5% market-implied probability for 14°C or below is the expected clear skies and light northerly flow promoting radiative cooling after sunset, consistent with climatological July minima around 15°C. Updated model runs show limited disagreement on this range, with any cloud cover or southerly shift as the main variables that could keep the low closer to 15–16°C. Traders are weighting the strong historical precedent for early-July nighttime drops alongside the current transition from extreme heat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions