A strong heatwave driven by a high-pressure dome and northward advection of subtropical air has elevated minimum temperatures across Paris ahead of June 19. Official guidance and ensemble models from Météo-France and European centers indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 22–23 °C under persistent clear skies and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup deviates from June climatological norms of 12–15 °C, pushing market-implied probabilities toward those warmer thresholds. Updated model runs show limited cooling potential before dawn, with only modest variability expected from localized urban heat-island effects. Traders are therefore concentrating positions around the 21–23 °C range as the most consistent forecast outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on June 19?
Lowest temperature in Paris on June 19?
19°C or below 100.0%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$24,445 Vol.
$24,445 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
19°C or below
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
19°C or below 100.0%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$24,445 Vol.
$24,445 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
19°C or below
$3,514 Vol.
Yes
20°C
$3,670 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,330 Vol.
No
22°C
$5,233 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,081 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,916 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,026 Vol.
No
26°C
$744 Vol.
No
27°C
$425 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,206 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$301 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heatwave driven by a high-pressure dome and northward advection of subtropical air has elevated minimum temperatures across Paris ahead of June 19. Official guidance and ensemble models from Météo-France and European centers indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 22–23 °C under persistent clear skies and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup deviates from June climatological norms of 12–15 °C, pushing market-implied probabilities toward those warmer thresholds. Updated model runs show limited cooling potential before dawn, with only modest variability expected from localized urban heat-island effects. Traders are therefore concentrating positions around the 21–23 °C range as the most consistent forecast outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$24,445End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heatwave driven by a high-pressure dome and northward advection of subtropical air has elevated minimum temperatures across Paris ahead of June 19. Official guidance and ensemble models from Météo-France and European centers indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 22–23 °C under persistent clear skies and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup deviates from June climatological norms of 12–15 °C, pushing market-implied probabilities toward those warmer thresholds. Updated model runs show limited cooling potential before dawn, with only modest variability expected from localized urban heat-island effects. Traders are therefore concentrating positions around the 21–23 °C range as the most consistent forecast outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,445End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
A strong heatwave driven by a high-pressure dome and northward advection of subtropical air has elevated minimum temperatures across Paris ahead of June 19. Official guidance and ensemble models from Météo-France and European centers indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 22–23 °C under persistent clear skies and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup deviates from June climatological norms of 12–15 °C, pushing market-implied probabilities toward those warmer thresholds. Updated model runs show limited cooling potential before dawn, with only modest variability expected from localized urban heat-island effects. Traders are therefore concentrating positions around the 21–23 °C range as the most consistent forecast outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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