Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on April 28?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on April 28?
13°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$17,042 Vol.
$17,042 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$17,042 Vol.
$17,042 Vol.
Apr 28, 2026
7°C or below
$489 Vol.
No
8°C
$712 Vol.
No
9°C
$676 Vol.
No
10°C
$1,137 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,607 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,972 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,637 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$916 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,082 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,375 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$3,440 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$17,042End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,042End Date
Apr 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 13°C in Shanghai on April 28, driven by confirmed morning observations from the official Xujiahui observatory registering exactly 13°C around dawn, with daytime readings holding steady above 14°C amid persistent cloud cover and light showers. This positioning reflects tight alignment across China Meteorological Administration guidance, GFS, and ECMWF model ensembles, which projected minima of 12–14°C under stable southerly flows and urban heat island effects mitigating radiative cooling—consistent with Shanghai's April climatological average low of 11–13°C but elevated by recent warmer anomalies. Realistic challenges include an improbable pre-midnight cold surge if skies unexpectedly clear, though current infrared satellite imagery shows sustained overcast conditions; final daily summary from CMA observations will confirm resolution shortly after local midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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