Close clustering of market-implied odds around 19–23°C for Shanghai’s June 28 overnight low reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty typical of late-June East Asian monsoon conditions. Primary drivers include variable cloud cover modulating nocturnal radiative cooling, fluctuating humidity levels tied to southerly moisture transport, and subtle steering influences from the western Pacific subtropical high that can shift local wind patterns and marine-layer intrusions from the East China Sea. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration shows model spread between GFS and ECMWF ensembles, with urban heat-island effects in Shanghai potentially raising minimums 1–2°C above rural baselines. Fresh model runs and updated surface observations expected within the next 24–48 hours are likely to narrow the range and move probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on June 28?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on June 28?
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$22,591 Vol.
$22,591 Vol.
Jun 28, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$22,591 Vol.
$22,591 Vol.
Jun 28, 2026
17°C or below
$672 Vol.
No
18°C
$564 Vol.
No
19°C
$672 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,971 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,456 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,654 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$6,149 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,811 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,098 Vol.
No
26°C
$681 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$862 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Close clustering of market-implied odds around 19–23°C for Shanghai’s June 28 overnight low reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty typical of late-June East Asian monsoon conditions. Primary drivers include variable cloud cover modulating nocturnal radiative cooling, fluctuating humidity levels tied to southerly moisture transport, and subtle steering influences from the western Pacific subtropical high that can shift local wind patterns and marine-layer intrusions from the East China Sea. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration shows model spread between GFS and ECMWF ensembles, with urban heat-island effects in Shanghai potentially raising minimums 1–2°C above rural baselines. Fresh model runs and updated surface observations expected within the next 24–48 hours are likely to narrow the range and move probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$22,591End Date
Jun 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Close clustering of market-implied odds around 19–23°C for Shanghai’s June 28 overnight low reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty typical of late-June East Asian monsoon conditions. Primary drivers include variable cloud cover modulating nocturnal radiative cooling, fluctuating humidity levels tied to southerly moisture transport, and subtle steering influences from the western Pacific subtropical high that can shift local wind patterns and marine-layer intrusions from the East China Sea. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration shows model spread between GFS and ECMWF ensembles, with urban heat-island effects in Shanghai potentially raising minimums 1–2°C above rural baselines. Fresh model runs and updated surface observations expected within the next 24–48 hours are likely to narrow the range and move probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,591End Date
Jun 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Close clustering of market-implied odds around 19–23°C for Shanghai’s June 28 overnight low reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty typical of late-June East Asian monsoon conditions. Primary drivers include variable cloud cover modulating nocturnal radiative cooling, fluctuating humidity levels tied to southerly moisture transport, and subtle steering influences from the western Pacific subtropical high that can shift local wind patterns and marine-layer intrusions from the East China Sea. Official guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration shows model spread between GFS and ECMWF ensembles, with urban heat-island effects in Shanghai potentially raising minimums 1–2°C above rural baselines. Fresh model runs and updated surface observations expected within the next 24–48 hours are likely to narrow the range and move probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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