Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models project Shanghai’s overnight minimum temperature on May 26 near 24°C, supported by persistent subtropical high pressure, moderate humidity near 70%, light variable winds, and variable cloud cover that together limit nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-spring subtropical conditions. This aligns with updated model consensus showing daytime highs near 29°C transitioning smoothly overnight, consistent with historical May baselines adjusted for current atmospheric stability. Traders assign near-certain implied probability to the 24°C outcome because small deviations in cloud cover, wind patterns, or surface moisture would need to align precisely to shift the reading even one degree lower. Unlikely scenarios that could challenge this include an unexpected clear-sky radiative cooling spike or a sharper influx of drier air, though current guidance shows limited scope for such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?
24°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$12,631 Vol.
$12,631 Vol.
May 26, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$12,631 Vol.
$12,631 Vol.
May 26, 2026
17°C or below
$963 Vol.
No
18°C
$577 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,081 Vol.
No
20°C
$333 Vol.
No
21°C
$534 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,379 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,370 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,487 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$474 Vol.
No
26°C
$769 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$664 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models project Shanghai’s overnight minimum temperature on May 26 near 24°C, supported by persistent subtropical high pressure, moderate humidity near 70%, light variable winds, and variable cloud cover that together limit nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-spring subtropical conditions. This aligns with updated model consensus showing daytime highs near 29°C transitioning smoothly overnight, consistent with historical May baselines adjusted for current atmospheric stability. Traders assign near-certain implied probability to the 24°C outcome because small deviations in cloud cover, wind patterns, or surface moisture would need to align precisely to shift the reading even one degree lower. Unlikely scenarios that could challenge this include an unexpected clear-sky radiative cooling spike or a sharper influx of drier air, though current guidance shows limited scope for such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
Volume
$12,631End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models project Shanghai’s overnight minimum temperature on May 26 near 24°C, supported by persistent subtropical high pressure, moderate humidity near 70%, light variable winds, and variable cloud cover that together limit nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-spring subtropical conditions. This aligns with updated model consensus showing daytime highs near 29°C transitioning smoothly overnight, consistent with historical May baselines adjusted for current atmospheric stability. Traders assign near-certain implied probability to the 24°C outcome because small deviations in cloud cover, wind patterns, or surface moisture would need to align precisely to shift the reading even one degree lower. Unlikely scenarios that could challenge this include an unexpected clear-sky radiative cooling spike or a sharper influx of drier air, though current guidance shows limited scope for such shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,631End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models project Shanghai’s overnight minimum temperature on May 26 near 24°C, supported by persistent subtropical high pressure, moderate humidity near 70%, light variable winds, and variable cloud cover that together limit nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-spring subtropical conditions. This aligns with updated model consensus showing daytime highs near 29°C transitioning smoothly overnight, consistent with historical May baselines adjusted for current atmospheric stability. Traders assign near-certain implied probability to the 24°C outcome because small deviations in cloud cover, wind patterns, or surface moisture would need to align precisely to shift the reading even one degree lower. Unlikely scenarios that could challenge this include an unexpected clear-sky radiative cooling spike or a sharper influx of drier air, though current guidance shows limited scope for such shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions