Tokyo’s mid-June climatology, with Japan Meteorological Agency normals placing daily minimum temperatures near 19°C at this time of year, underpins the strong market consensus around a 20°C low. Current JMA and ensemble forecasts for June 18 show overnight conditions stabilizing in the 18–21°C range amid typical early-summer humidity and light winds, with no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling expected to push readings lower. Above-normal seasonal temperatures projected nationwide further support this narrow band. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted frontal passage or heavier nocturnal rainfall that enhances evaporative cooling, though model consensus and short-range guidance indicate low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on June 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 18?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,917 Vol.
$23,917 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,917 Vol.
$23,917 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
15°C or below
$553 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,205 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,624 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,082 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,075 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,972 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$8,965 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,906 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,913 Vol.
No
24°C
$308 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$313 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo’s mid-June climatology, with Japan Meteorological Agency normals placing daily minimum temperatures near 19°C at this time of year, underpins the strong market consensus around a 20°C low. Current JMA and ensemble forecasts for June 18 show overnight conditions stabilizing in the 18–21°C range amid typical early-summer humidity and light winds, with no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling expected to push readings lower. Above-normal seasonal temperatures projected nationwide further support this narrow band. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted frontal passage or heavier nocturnal rainfall that enhances evaporative cooling, though model consensus and short-range guidance indicate low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$23,917End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tokyo’s mid-June climatology, with Japan Meteorological Agency normals placing daily minimum temperatures near 19°C at this time of year, underpins the strong market consensus around a 20°C low. Current JMA and ensemble forecasts for June 18 show overnight conditions stabilizing in the 18–21°C range amid typical early-summer humidity and light winds, with no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling expected to push readings lower. Above-normal seasonal temperatures projected nationwide further support this narrow band. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted frontal passage or heavier nocturnal rainfall that enhances evaporative cooling, though model consensus and short-range guidance indicate low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,917End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Tokyo’s mid-June climatology, with Japan Meteorological Agency normals placing daily minimum temperatures near 19°C at this time of year, underpins the strong market consensus around a 20°C low. Current JMA and ensemble forecasts for June 18 show overnight conditions stabilizing in the 18–21°C range amid typical early-summer humidity and light winds, with no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative cooling expected to push readings lower. Above-normal seasonal temperatures projected nationwide further support this narrow band. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted frontal passage or heavier nocturnal rainfall that enhances evaporative cooling, though model consensus and short-range guidance indicate low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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