Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 10?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 10?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$49,246 Vol.
$49,246 Vol.
May 10, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$49,246 Vol.
$49,246 Vol.
May 10, 2026
11°C or below
$11,598 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,315 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,085 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,751 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,923 Vol.
No
16°C
$6,436 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$18,554 Vol.
No
18°C
$673 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,076 Vol.
No
20°C
$876 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$959 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$49,246End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$49,246End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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