The strong trader consensus behind the 88.9% “No” outcome for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in the Los Angeles area before 2027 stems primarily from the brief remaining window of roughly five months and persistently low recent seismicity. USGS monitoring through early August 2026 shows only scattered events below magnitude 4.0 near Los Angeles, with a few moderate shocks (M4.1–4.3) occurring farther north along the San Andreas and related faults in July. Historical recurrence intervals on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood and southern San Andreas are measured in decades to centuries, consistent with the agency’s longer-term 30-year regional probability of approximately 60% for a magnitude 6.7 event. While paleoseismic data indicate ongoing tectonic stress accumulation, short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain and no precursory signals have emerged to shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
$15,133 Vol.
$15,133 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,133 Vol.
$15,133 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The strong trader consensus behind the 88.9% “No” outcome for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in the Los Angeles area before 2027 stems primarily from the brief remaining window of roughly five months and persistently low recent seismicity. USGS monitoring through early August 2026 shows only scattered events below magnitude 4.0 near Los Angeles, with a few moderate shocks (M4.1–4.3) occurring farther north along the San Andreas and related faults in July. Historical recurrence intervals on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood and southern San Andreas are measured in decades to centuries, consistent with the agency’s longer-term 30-year regional probability of approximately 60% for a magnitude 6.7 event. While paleoseismic data indicate ongoing tectonic stress accumulation, short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain and no precursory signals have emerged to shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$15,133End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The strong trader consensus behind the 88.9% “No” outcome for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in the Los Angeles area before 2027 stems primarily from the brief remaining window of roughly five months and persistently low recent seismicity. USGS monitoring through early August 2026 shows only scattered events below magnitude 4.0 near Los Angeles, with a few moderate shocks (M4.1–4.3) occurring farther north along the San Andreas and related faults in July. Historical recurrence intervals on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood and southern San Andreas are measured in decades to centuries, consistent with the agency’s longer-term 30-year regional probability of approximately 60% for a magnitude 6.7 event. While paleoseismic data indicate ongoing tectonic stress accumulation, short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain and no precursory signals have emerged to shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$15,133End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus behind the 88.9% “No” outcome for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in the Los Angeles area before 2027 stems primarily from the brief remaining window of roughly five months and persistently low recent seismicity. USGS monitoring through early August 2026 shows only scattered events below magnitude 4.0 near Los Angeles, with a few moderate shocks (M4.1–4.3) occurring farther north along the San Andreas and related faults in July. Historical recurrence intervals on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood and southern San Andreas are measured in decades to centuries, consistent with the agency’s longer-term 30-year regional probability of approximately 60% for a magnitude 6.7 event. While paleoseismic data indicate ongoing tectonic stress accumulation, short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain and no precursory signals have emerged to shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions