Skip to main content
icon for NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·House Primary

NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·House Primary

NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner

Susie Lee 88%

James Lally 7%

Terrill Robinson 5%

Brandon West 1.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Susie Lee 88%

James Lally 7%

Terrill Robinson 5%

Brandon West 1.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Susie Lee

$1,194 Vol.

88%

James Lally

$939 Vol.

7%

Terrill Robinson

$1,322 Vol.

5%

Brandon West

$835 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Representative Susie Lee maintains a commanding lead in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, scheduled for June 9, 2026, due to her established name recognition, prior primary victories exceeding 90 percent, and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million with nearly $3 million cash on hand as of March 31. Challenger James Lally, a cardiologist, has raised under $850,000 while criticizing Lee’s record on foreign policy and immigration legislation, yet trails significantly in trader consensus. Terrill Robinson and Brandon West remain lesser-known contenders with minimal reported support or resources. The market’s implied probabilities align with historical patterns favoring well-funded incumbents in low-turnout primaries absent major late developments.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,291
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
May 25, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Representative Susie Lee maintains a commanding lead in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, scheduled for June 9, 2026, due to her established name recognition, prior primary victories exceeding 90 percent, and substantial fundraising edge exceeding $3.5 million with nearly $3 million cash on hand as of March 31. Challenger James Lally, a cardiologist, has raised under $850,000 while criticizing Lee’s record on foreign policy and immigration legislation, yet trails significantly in trader consensus. Terrill Robinson and Brandon West remain lesser-known contenders with minimal reported support or resources. The market’s implied probabilities align with historical patterns favoring well-funded incumbents in low-turnout primaries absent major late developments.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,291
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
May 25, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03?

Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03?

89%
icon for Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02?

48%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the NV-03 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the NV-03 House seat?

77%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Susie Lee" at 88%, followed by "James Lally" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 25, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Susie Lee" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Lally" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.