Heavy early-month accumulation has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 500 mm or more of June precipitation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory measurements reached 491.8 mm through June 16 amid frequent thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity typical of the wet season. With roughly two weeks remaining and climatological norms supporting an additional 100–200 mm, totals are projected to exceed the threshold under most forecast scenarios relative to the long-term June average of approximately 450–490 mm. Trader consensus reflects this observed surplus. Only a prolonged dry spell or substantial downward data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though current patterns and guidance make such reversals unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in June?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in June?
500mm+ 96.0%
<350mm <1%
350-375mm <1%
375-400mm <1%
$33,564 Vol.
$33,564 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<350mm
No
350-375mm
No
375-400mm
No
400-425mm
No
425-450mm
No
450-475mm
No
475-500mm
No
500mm+
Yes
500mm+ 96.0%
<350mm <1%
350-375mm <1%
375-400mm <1%
$33,564 Vol.
$33,564 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<350mm
$4,706 Vol.
No
350-375mm
$5,353 Vol.
No
375-400mm
$3,187 Vol.
No
400-425mm
$1,585 Vol.
No
425-450mm
$1,569 Vol.
No
450-475mm
$1,739 Vol.
No
475-500mm
$4,818 Vol.
No
500mm+
$10,606 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Heavy early-month accumulation has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 500 mm or more of June precipitation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory measurements reached 491.8 mm through June 16 amid frequent thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity typical of the wet season. With roughly two weeks remaining and climatological norms supporting an additional 100–200 mm, totals are projected to exceed the threshold under most forecast scenarios relative to the long-term June average of approximately 450–490 mm. Trader consensus reflects this observed surplus. Only a prolonged dry spell or substantial downward data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though current patterns and guidance make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$33,564End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Heavy early-month accumulation has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 500 mm or more of June precipitation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory measurements reached 491.8 mm through June 16 amid frequent thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity typical of the wet season. With roughly two weeks remaining and climatological norms supporting an additional 100–200 mm, totals are projected to exceed the threshold under most forecast scenarios relative to the long-term June average of approximately 450–490 mm. Trader consensus reflects this observed surplus. Only a prolonged dry spell or substantial downward data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though current patterns and guidance make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,564End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Heavy early-month accumulation has driven the 93% market-implied probability for 500 mm or more of June precipitation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong Observatory measurements reached 491.8 mm through June 16 amid frequent thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity typical of the wet season. With roughly two weeks remaining and climatological norms supporting an additional 100–200 mm, totals are projected to exceed the threshold under most forecast scenarios relative to the long-term June average of approximately 450–490 mm. Trader consensus reflects this observed surplus. Only a prolonged dry spell or substantial downward data revision could realistically alter the outcome, though current patterns and guidance make such reversals unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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