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Sports·NFL

Will any player break the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record in the 2026-27 season?

icon for Will any player break the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record in the 2026-27 season?
Sports·NFL

Will any player break the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record in the 2026-27 season?

50% chance
Polymarket
NEW
50% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record remains 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013, with only two other 50-plus performances in league history. For the 2026 season, consensus projections place leaders such as Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott in the low-to-mid 30s, reflecting strong passing attacks featuring elite weapons groups, 17-game schedules, and quarterback-friendly rules. This creates competitive balance at the 50% implied probability, as the extreme threshold demands outlier health, efficiency, and supporting cast production that rarely aligns. Recent 2025 results, including Stafford’s league-leading 46 touchdowns, underscore regression risks and year-to-year volatility. Developments that could shift sentiment include major injuries to top passers or receivers, unexpected rule emphasis favoring passing volume, or an unforeseen historic campaign by a young signal-caller.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.

If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.

If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Jan 12, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 4:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record remains 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013, with only two other 50-plus performances in league history. For the 2026 season, consensus projections place leaders such as Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott in the low-to-mid 30s, reflecting strong passing attacks featuring elite weapons groups, 17-game schedules, and quarterback-friendly rules. This creates competitive balance at the 50% implied probability, as the extreme threshold demands outlier health, efficiency, and supporting cast production that rarely aligns. Recent 2025 results, including Stafford’s league-leading 46 touchdowns, underscore regression risks and year-to-year volatility. Developments that could shift sentiment include major injuries to top passers or receivers, unexpected rule emphasis favoring passing volume, or an unforeseen historic campaign by a young signal-caller.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.

If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.

If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Jan 12, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 4:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will any player break the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record in the 2026-27 season?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 50% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 50¢, the market collectively assigns a 50% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will any player break the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record in the 2026-27 season?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will any player break the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record in the 2026-27 season?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will any player break the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record in the 2026-27 season?" is 50% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 50% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will any player break the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record in the 2026-27 season?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.