The Mandalorian and Grogu's projected second-weekend domestic gross sits under $25 million after a roughly 70% drop from its $82 million three-day opening, the weakest Disney-era Star Wars debut since Solo. This steep decline aligns with mixed industry tracking, audience demographics shifting toward younger viewers for competing titles like the A24 horror hit Backrooms, and franchise fatigue following a modest Memorial Day launch that totaled around $100 million over four days. With a reported $165 million production budget, the film's theatrical trajectory faces pressure from limited international appeal and no major upcoming catalysts before Toy Story 5. An upset pushing above $25 million would require significant positive word-of-mouth adjustments or revised estimates that exceed current studio tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<25m 100.0%
25-28m <1%
28-31m <1%
>31m <1%
$132,993 Vol.
$132,993 Vol.
Jun 1, 2026
<25m
Yes
25-28m
No
28-31m
No
>31m
No
<25m 100.0%
25-28m <1%
28-31m <1%
>31m <1%
$132,993 Vol.
$132,993 Vol.
Jun 1, 2026
<25m
$53,235 Vol.
Yes
25-28m
$59,466 Vol.
No
28-31m
$9,835 Vol.
No
>31m
$10,458 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 29 - May 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Mandalorian and Grogu's projected second-weekend domestic gross sits under $25 million after a roughly 70% drop from its $82 million three-day opening, the weakest Disney-era Star Wars debut since Solo. This steep decline aligns with mixed industry tracking, audience demographics shifting toward younger viewers for competing titles like the A24 horror hit Backrooms, and franchise fatigue following a modest Memorial Day launch that totaled around $100 million over four days. With a reported $165 million production budget, the film's theatrical trajectory faces pressure from limited international appeal and no major upcoming catalysts before Toy Story 5. An upset pushing above $25 million would require significant positive word-of-mouth adjustments or revised estimates that exceed current studio tracking.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 29 - May 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 5:11 PM ET
Volume
$132,993End Date
Jun 1, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 5:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 29 - May 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The Mandalorian and Grogu's projected second-weekend domestic gross sits under $25 million after a roughly 70% drop from its $82 million three-day opening, the weakest Disney-era Star Wars debut since Solo. This steep decline aligns with mixed industry tracking, audience demographics shifting toward younger viewers for competing titles like the A24 horror hit Backrooms, and franchise fatigue following a modest Memorial Day launch that totaled around $100 million over four days. With a reported $165 million production budget, the film's theatrical trajectory faces pressure from limited international appeal and no major upcoming catalysts before Toy Story 5. An upset pushing above $25 million would require significant positive word-of-mouth adjustments or revised estimates that exceed current studio tracking.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 29 - May 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$132,993End Date
Jun 1, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 5:11 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The Mandalorian and Grogu's projected second-weekend domestic gross sits under $25 million after a roughly 70% drop from its $82 million three-day opening, the weakest Disney-era Star Wars debut since Solo. This steep decline aligns with mixed industry tracking, audience demographics shifting toward younger viewers for competing titles like the A24 horror hit Backrooms, and franchise fatigue following a modest Memorial Day launch that totaled around $100 million over four days. With a reported $165 million production budget, the film's theatrical trajectory faces pressure from limited international appeal and no major upcoming catalysts before Toy Story 5. An upset pushing above $25 million would require significant positive word-of-mouth adjustments or revised estimates that exceed current studio tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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