Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earning under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with 91% implied probability, driven by a 49% drop to $67 million in its second frame from 4,284 theaters, signaling front-loaded appeal post-Easter opening of $132 million despite solid word-of-mouth and A-grade audience scores. Cumulative domestic at $310 million reflects strong family turnout but fading holiday boosts and stiff competition from holdover Project Hail Mary, now eyeing $25 million. Historical patterns for Illumination animations suggest another 35-45% decline, aligning with tracking estimates in the high-30s low-40s. An upset to $44 million-plus would require exceptional repeat viewings or minimal Friday-to-Sunday erosion, boosted by school breaks, though presales indicate otherwise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office
<44m 92%
44-48m 6.8%
48-52m 1.6%
>52m 1.1%
NEW
$12,006 Vol.
NEW
$12,006 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
<44m
92%
44-48m
7%
48-52m
2%
>52m
1%
<44m 92%
44-48m 6.8%
48-52m 1.6%
>52m 1.1%
NEW
$12,006 Vol.
NEW
$12,006 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
<44m
$2,619 Vol.
92%
44-48m
$2,600 Vol.
7%
48-52m
$4,544 Vol.
2%
>52m
$2,244 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earning under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with 91% implied probability, driven by a 49% drop to $67 million in its second frame from 4,284 theaters, signaling front-loaded appeal post-Easter opening of $132 million despite solid word-of-mouth and A-grade audience scores. Cumulative domestic at $310 million reflects strong family turnout but fading holiday boosts and stiff competition from holdover Project Hail Mary, now eyeing $25 million. Historical patterns for Illumination animations suggest another 35-45% decline, aligning with tracking estimates in the high-30s low-40s. An upset to $44 million-plus would require exceptional repeat viewings or minimal Friday-to-Sunday erosion, boosted by school breaks, though presales indicate otherwise.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$12,006End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earning under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with 91% implied probability, driven by a 49% drop to $67 million in its second frame from 4,284 theaters, signaling front-loaded appeal post-Easter opening of $132 million despite solid word-of-mouth and A-grade audience scores. Cumulative domestic at $310 million reflects strong family turnout but fading holiday boosts and stiff competition from holdover Project Hail Mary, now eyeing $25 million. Historical patterns for Illumination animations suggest another 35-45% decline, aligning with tracking estimates in the high-30s low-40s. An upset to $44 million-plus would require exceptional repeat viewings or minimal Friday-to-Sunday erosion, boosted by school breaks, though presales indicate otherwise.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$12,006End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earning under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with 91% implied probability, driven by a 49% drop to $67 million in its second frame from 4,284 theaters, signaling front-loaded appeal post-Easter opening of $132 million despite solid word-of-mouth and A-grade audience scores. Cumulative domestic at $310 million reflects strong family turnout but fading holiday boosts and stiff competition from holdover Project Hail Mary, now eyeing $25 million. Historical patterns for Illumination animations suggest another 35-45% decline, aligning with tracking estimates in the high-30s low-40s. An upset to $44 million-plus would require exceptional repeat viewings or minimal Friday-to-Sunday erosion, boosted by school breaks, though presales indicate otherwise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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