Trader consensus has locked in Man on Fire at a near-certain 100% implied probability for #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV chart this week, trailing only the breakout limited series Should I Marry A Murderer? at #1. The Yahya Abdul-Mateen II-led action thriller's strong positioning stems from its explosive premiere late last week, amassing 11 million views in its first four days amid positive buzz for its high-octane reboot of the classic tale and Rotten Tomatoes scores surpassing Denzel Washington's original film. Streaming metrics from Netflix Tudum confirm its hold, bolstered by minimal drop-off against fresh competition like Running Point and Unchosen lower down. Realistic upsets are negligible barring rare data revisions before final chart lock, as historical weekly trajectories rarely shift post-midweek updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Man on Fire 100.0%
Lord of the Flies <1%
Should I Marry A Murderer? <1%
Legends <1%
$17,557 Vol.
$17,557 Vol.
Lord of the Flies
No
Man on Fire
Yes
Should I Marry A Murderer?
No
Legends
No
The Roast of Kevin Hart
No
Running Point
No
Unchosen
No
The Chestnut Man
No
The Boroughs
No
Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine
No
Man on Fire 100.0%
Lord of the Flies <1%
Should I Marry A Murderer? <1%
Legends <1%
$17,557 Vol.
$17,557 Vol.
Lord of the Flies
No
Man on Fire
Yes
Should I Marry A Murderer?
No
Legends
No
The Roast of Kevin Hart
No
Running Point
No
Unchosen
No
The Chestnut Man
No
The Boroughs
No
Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine
No
This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.
If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows.
If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has locked in Man on Fire at a near-certain 100% implied probability for #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV chart this week, trailing only the breakout limited series Should I Marry A Murderer? at #1. The Yahya Abdul-Mateen II-led action thriller's strong positioning stems from its explosive premiere late last week, amassing 11 million views in its first four days amid positive buzz for its high-octane reboot of the classic tale and Rotten Tomatoes scores surpassing Denzel Washington's original film. Streaming metrics from Netflix Tudum confirm its hold, bolstered by minimal drop-off against fresh competition like Running Point and Unchosen lower down. Realistic upsets are negligible barring rare data revisions before final chart lock, as historical weekly trajectories rarely shift post-midweek updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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