**Legal challenges have paused the $110 billion Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger well beyond 2026, driving the 76.8% “No” odds.** Announced in February 2026 with an initial Q3 2026 target, the deal received shareholder approval and early regulatory clearances in major markets. However, antitrust lawsuits filed by California and 11 other states in July 2026 allege the combination would reduce competition and raise prices. In response, Paramount agreed in a July 24 court filing to halt all acquisition steps until June 1, 2027 (or five days after final resolution of the cases, whichever comes first). This court-ordered pause, combined with the ticking-fee structure extending past September 2026, makes closure by year-end 2026 highly improbable absent an unexpectedly swift favorable ruling. Traders are pricing in the realistic timeline for complex media antitrust litigation, which typically spans many months. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming court hearings on the state challenges and any signals from federal regulators.