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icon for OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
Tech·OpenAI

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?

icon for OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
Tech·OpenAI

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?

NEW

$20,000 Vol.

Dec 31, 2027
Polymarket

$20,000 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for December 31, 2027

December 31, 2027

$7,635 Vol.

8%

icon for December 31, 2028

December 31, 2028

$6,658 Vol.

16%

icon for December 31, 2029

December 31, 2029

$5,707 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s continued access to massive private capital and surging investor interest have anchored trader sentiment against near-term bankruptcy. In March 2026 the company closed a $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation, anchored by SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia, with fresh September 2026 discussions targeting $1.2 trillion or higher before any IPO. Annualized revenue has climbed past $40 billion following recent model releases, even as heavy compute spending produces large losses and quarterly cash burn. CEO Sam Altman has explicitly delayed any public listing until 2027, citing AI safety priorities, while regulators and partners show no signs of withdrawing support. These funding dynamics and competitive positioning in the large language model race make an imminent bankruptcy filing appear remote to market participants.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,000
End Date
Jan 1, 2030
Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s continued access to massive private capital and surging investor interest have anchored trader sentiment against near-term bankruptcy. In March 2026 the company closed a $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation, anchored by SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia, with fresh September 2026 discussions targeting $1.2 trillion or higher before any IPO. Annualized revenue has climbed past $40 billion following recent model releases, even as heavy compute spending produces large losses and quarterly cash burn. CEO Sam Altman has explicitly delayed any public listing until 2027, citing AI safety priorities, while regulators and partners show no signs of withdrawing support. These funding dynamics and competitive positioning in the large language model race make an imminent bankruptcy filing appear remote to market participants.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,000
End Date
Jan 1, 2030
Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2029" at 19%, followed by "December 31, 2028" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?" is "December 31, 2029" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31, 2028" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.