Current standings on the Text Arena math leaderboard place Anthropic first, Google second, and Z.ai third as of mid-September 2026, with Elo gaps under 30 points among the top six labs. Trader sentiment for the third spot by late November reflects this tight clustering, where Z.ai's GLM-5.3 series, Alibaba's Qwen3.8, Moonshot's Kimi-K3, and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trade closely behind the leaders due to comparable performance on math-specific voting. Limited major releases in the past month have kept probabilities fragmented across multiple Chinese and Western labs, with no decisive capability jumps reported. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, fine-tuning updates, or benchmark shifts before resolution, as small Elo movements can reorder the middle pack in this saturated category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 39.0%
Moonshot 37.5%
Google 28%
Z.ai 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
39%
Moonshot
38%
28%
Z.ai
13%
Xiaomi
10%
Meta
9%
Anthropic
7%
Tencent
7%
Alibaba
6%
StepFun
6%
SpaceXAI
3%
Baidu
3%
Nvidia
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Meituan
3%
Amazon
3%
Bytedance
3%
Mistral
3%
Microsoft
3%
Thinky
3%
MiniMax
2%
OpenAI 39.0%
Moonshot 37.5%
Google 28%
Z.ai 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
OpenAI
$39 Vol.
39%
Moonshot
$63 Vol.
38%
$33 Vol.
28%
Z.ai
$73 Vol.
13%
Xiaomi
$33 Vol.
10%
Meta
$33 Vol.
9%
Anthropic
$33 Vol.
7%
Tencent
$33 Vol.
7%
Alibaba
$152 Vol.
6%
StepFun
$392 Vol.
6%
SpaceXAI
$79 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$33 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$33 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$33 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$33 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$174 Vol.
3%
Bytedance
$74 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$33 Vol.
3%
Microsoft
$33 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$33 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$45 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Current standings on the Text Arena math leaderboard place Anthropic first, Google second, and Z.ai third as of mid-September 2026, with Elo gaps under 30 points among the top six labs. Trader sentiment for the third spot by late November reflects this tight clustering, where Z.ai's GLM-5.3 series, Alibaba's Qwen3.8, Moonshot's Kimi-K3, and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trade closely behind the leaders due to comparable performance on math-specific voting. Limited major releases in the past month have kept probabilities fragmented across multiple Chinese and Western labs, with no decisive capability jumps reported. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, fine-tuning updates, or benchmark shifts before resolution, as small Elo movements can reorder the middle pack in this saturated category.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,479End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Current standings on the Text Arena math leaderboard place Anthropic first, Google second, and Z.ai third as of mid-September 2026, with Elo gaps under 30 points among the top six labs. Trader sentiment for the third spot by late November reflects this tight clustering, where Z.ai's GLM-5.3 series, Alibaba's Qwen3.8, Moonshot's Kimi-K3, and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trade closely behind the leaders due to comparable performance on math-specific voting. Limited major releases in the past month have kept probabilities fragmented across multiple Chinese and Western labs, with no decisive capability jumps reported. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, fine-tuning updates, or benchmark shifts before resolution, as small Elo movements can reorder the middle pack in this saturated category.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,479End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current standings on the Text Arena math leaderboard place Anthropic first, Google second, and Z.ai third as of mid-September 2026, with Elo gaps under 30 points among the top six labs. Trader sentiment for the third spot by late November reflects this tight clustering, where Z.ai's GLM-5.3 series, Alibaba's Qwen3.8, Moonshot's Kimi-K3, and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants trade closely behind the leaders due to comparable performance on math-specific voting. Limited major releases in the past month have kept probabilities fragmented across multiple Chinese and Western labs, with no decisive capability jumps reported. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, fine-tuning updates, or benchmark shifts before resolution, as small Elo movements can reorder the middle pack in this saturated category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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