Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard behind OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 series, with implied odds clustered near 50% across several labs reflecting rapid capability gains in agentic frontend coding. Recent releases have narrowed gaps on multi-step HTML/React and tool-use tasks, including Alibaba's Qwen3.8-max climbing the Pareto frontier at lower cost, Moonshot's Kimi K3 briefly topping categories, Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 improvements in data analytics and gaming simulations, and strong showings from Z.ai's GLM-5.3 and Tencent models. Differentiators include benchmark-specific strengths, price/performance efficiency, and open-weight accessibility versus proprietary scale, with additional model updates and vote accumulation likely to shift positions before November resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMiniMax 25%
Xiaomi 25%
Poolside 25%
Meta 25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
MiniMax
25%
Xiaomi
25%
Poolside
25%
Meta
25%
ByteDance
25%
DeepSeek
25%
Alibaba
20%
OpenAI
14%
Moonshot
14%
Anthropic
14%
Thinky
14%
SpaceXAI
12%
13%
Z.ai
11%
Mistral
14%
Tencent
7%
MiniMax 25%
Xiaomi 25%
Poolside 25%
Meta 25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
MiniMax
$38 Vol.
25%
Xiaomi
$38 Vol.
25%
Poolside
$38 Vol.
25%
Meta
$37 Vol.
25%
ByteDance
$38 Vol.
25%
DeepSeek
$38 Vol.
25%
Alibaba
$38 Vol.
20%
OpenAI
$38 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$38 Vol.
14%
Anthropic
$38 Vol.
14%
Thinky
$38 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$38 Vol.
12%
$51 Vol.
13%
Z.ai
$38 Vol.
11%
Mistral
$50 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$38 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard behind OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 series, with implied odds clustered near 50% across several labs reflecting rapid capability gains in agentic frontend coding. Recent releases have narrowed gaps on multi-step HTML/React and tool-use tasks, including Alibaba's Qwen3.8-max climbing the Pareto frontier at lower cost, Moonshot's Kimi K3 briefly topping categories, Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 improvements in data analytics and gaming simulations, and strong showings from Z.ai's GLM-5.3 and Tencent models. Differentiators include benchmark-specific strengths, price/performance efficiency, and open-weight accessibility versus proprietary scale, with additional model updates and vote accumulation likely to shift positions before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:08 PM ET
Volume
$628End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard behind OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 series, with implied odds clustered near 50% across several labs reflecting rapid capability gains in agentic frontend coding. Recent releases have narrowed gaps on multi-step HTML/React and tool-use tasks, including Alibaba's Qwen3.8-max climbing the Pareto frontier at lower cost, Moonshot's Kimi K3 briefly topping categories, Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 improvements in data analytics and gaming simulations, and strong showings from Z.ai's GLM-5.3 and Tencent models. Differentiators include benchmark-specific strengths, price/performance efficiency, and open-weight accessibility versus proprietary scale, with additional model updates and vote accumulation likely to shift positions before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$628End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard behind OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 series, with implied odds clustered near 50% across several labs reflecting rapid capability gains in agentic frontend coding. Recent releases have narrowed gaps on multi-step HTML/React and tool-use tasks, including Alibaba's Qwen3.8-max climbing the Pareto frontier at lower cost, Moonshot's Kimi K3 briefly topping categories, Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 improvements in data analytics and gaming simulations, and strong showings from Z.ai's GLM-5.3 and Tencent models. Differentiators include benchmark-specific strengths, price/performance efficiency, and open-weight accessibility versus proprietary scale, with additional model updates and vote accumulation likely to shift positions before November resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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